I sent you an email w/ model links. Forgot to mention that anything beyond 10 days is really considered an 'outlook' or 'trend'. It's very hard to forecast accurately beyond that. Keep an eye on the MRF (medium range model) for 3-10 days and it will give you an idea of wx systems that could impact your area. Not sure what part of the country you live in, but the MRF tends to show a southern bias on most Low pressure systems in the Midwest in the 5-10 outlooks.
Furthermore, I also recommend the ETA model for 0-72 hrs. for short term forecasting. Both models update each day at 00Z and 12Z (7pm/7am EST). Hope this helps.
I suppose it depends on where one is located, but here in southern New England there are so many variables at work even 12-hour forecasts during winter months are pitifully inaccurate. It can be raining at my house yet snowing 10 miles north. For me, looking at the change in the barometer, the weathervane atop the garage, and just peeking outside is about the best I can hope for.
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