OK <p>I spoke with a local weather forecaster tonight and got some good info, other than it's going to snow sat night. He told me the how right a 5 day forecast is.<p>Day 1 94+ - %<br>Day 2 83-90 %<br>Day 3 75-82 %<br>Day 4 60-75 %<br>Day 5 55-65 %<br>Day 6 and seven are about as good as flipping a coin on if it's going to snow or not.<p>Just some info i thought i would share.<p>Geoff
Sounds like he's exagerating on his success ratios to me. I'd believe those figures for temperatures, not for precip amount.<p>----------<br>Dave in S.Ontario<br>
Those are for precip and temps. What he means is that when they do the 5 day forecast how accurate each day of the forecast is, the further out ya go the less accurate.<p>Geoff
I belive that those % may be correct for precipitation, however whether it will be winter type or just rain is another item all together. When forcasting rain storm they seem to be much better. there is just to many variables with winter storms for them to be accurate. They all will tell you the next day how accurate they were the night before, but they change the forcast as the precip is falling. Also snow amounts can be very local in amounts that why you see accumulations 4-9". they give themselves alot of leeway.<br>We have all seen it snow with ground temps at 40+ and seen it rain whenthe ground temp was 10 degrees. Cloud temps are critical and storm track in NE is even more critical, and these are things that will never be pridictable. <br>Dino<p><p>----------<br> Professional Ice and Snow Management <br>Products:Services:Equipment www.sima.org
Environment Canada says that the Golden Horseshoe region of Ontario is one of the most difficult in all of Canada for weather prediction. We have the influence of the great lakes all around us as well as two possible storm tracks (from the west and from the south) both of which are affected by the lakes and to a lesser extent the escarpment to our southwest. 9 out of 10 times precip types and amounts are incorrect. The most aggregious error however has always been the timing of the precipitation. More often than not they are off by 6-12-24hrs as to when the snow will arrive. As Dino says, rainfall is easier to predict than snow.<p>----------<br>Dave in S.Ontario<br>
dave,<br> i have found that the canadian foracast are more accurate than the u.s.ilive only 15mi from the border and the ottawa station is always better. idont know why??<p>----------<br>Todd <br>
That's funny, the least inaccurate forcasts for this area are usually from Buffalo stations.<p>----------<br>Dave in S.Ontario<br>
HEY DAVE, ENVIROMENT CANADA SAYS WE'RE THE MOST DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HERE IN NOVA SCOTIA BECAUSE OF THE TIDES IN THE BAY OF FUNDY. I GET MY FORCASTS FROM THEM EITHER OTHER INTERNET, OR A WEATHER RADIO. DO ANY OF YOU GUYS IN THE US USE THE WEATHER RADIO BROADCASTS? THEY ARE LOCALIZED AND FREE. UP HERE I FIND THEY ARE REASONALBLY ACCURATE, ARE UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS, BUT I STILL STICK MY HEAD OUT THE DOOR EVERY MORNING AT 4AM, TO SEE IF THEY ARE RIGHT. ALSO MY BROTHER PLOWS FOR THE DOT, AND HE CALLS IF HE GET CALLED IN UNEXPECTALLY.<br>BILL
