THE NEXT 15-20 DAYS ... mild and dry

wxdavid

Senior Member
Sometimes as we approach the middle of October we begin to see early signs of winter developing in various portions of the upper Plains or the Great Lakes. However and inking at the various weather models and the pper air patterns sand the various teleconnections and the MJO… there is little chance of any sort of early winter weather events east of the Rockies between now and October 15. Perhaps as late as October 20th. On the other hand, anyone in Alaska or the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies are likely see some snow events between now and the middle of October, especially at the high elevations.


Image #1 shows the jet stream pattern across North America at 500mb valid Sept 29th.
I have highlighted the position of hurricane Sam -- that is to say where it is likely to be by Wednesday morning ( which is just N of Puerto Rico). There are two massive troughs in the jet stream -1 located on the West coast extending from British Columbia to Baja California and covering much of the Rockies… and a second Trough which is also quite impressive extending from eastern Canada down the East Coast into the northern Bahamas. In between those two features... there is a massive Ridge or bulge in the jet stream which extends from Arkansas up the Mississippi Valley Valley end into Hudson's Bay Canada… Temperatures in the Plains and the Upper Midwest will reach the mid 90s early in the week.

index.png


The Deep trough on East Coast is going to turn hurricane Sam out to sea so it is not going to be a threat for anybody. The massive Trough on the east coast is simply too deep and too powerful for the hurricane to ignore and it will kick the system out to sea. .The Deep Trough on the west coast which extends into the Great Basin in the Rockies will probably drop snow levels down to 6000 feet in some areas by the middle of the week


Image #2 is the jet stream pattern across North America valid October 2nd. The big red L off the East coast is the upper air depiction of hurricane Sam and the trough on the East coast is very deep. It has captured Sam and is pulling it due north perhaps threatening Newfoundland Canada by October 4. Meanwhile … a very strong Ridge in the jet stream covers all of the Plains and the Midwest and it extends into Hudson's Bay Canada. The result will be more widespread above normal temperatures or next weekend in all of these areas. Temperature anomalies are likely be 6 to 12 degrees above normal for the next 7 Days in these areas.

index (1).png


Image #3 shows the overall jet stream pattern valid October 5 -- note that the overall pattern has not really changed. There is a deep persistent Trough in the jet stream from the Gulf of Alaska into the eastern Pacific Ocean and another one across Southeast Canada into the Western Atlantic Ocean. In between ...we have a broad Ridge covering most of the Plains … the Upper Midwest into south central Canada. ALL of these upper air maps are dry maps with little precipitation and i they are warm -- above normal temperatures in the Plains and the Upper Midwest and south central Canada OCT 5-10

246.png



Image #4 VALID oct 9-10 shows the trough on the East Coast has finally moved away and this allows the Ridge in the jet stream across the Plains and the Midwest to expand into the Great Lakes and the Northeast US. . This forces the jet stream to stay well north of the US Canada Border east of the Rockies. Meanwhile the trough on the west coast brings some much-needed rain to the Pacific Northwest and California.

index (3).png



SUMMARY Even though the pattern looks dry and warm for most of the Plains and Midwest, the Northeast, the Great Lakes … and southern Canada for the first half of October don't read too much into it. Besides doing snow forecasting I also do a lot of agricultural forecasting for the US and around the world. ( Agriculture meaning farmers and commodities), September has been a very dry month for most of the Plains and the Midwest and the drought conditions have expanded significantly from the Rockies into the middle portions of the country because of dryness of the pattern. There are several reasons for this but unless somebody really wants to know I think the explanation is a little too much hard science here for this group.
 

Fourteen Contracting Inc.

PlowSite.com Addict
Location
Vaughan, Ontario
There are several reasons for this but unless somebody really wants to know I think the explanation is a little too much hard science here for this group.

So your capitalist strategy here is to insult everyone's intelligence in an attempt to get them to sign up for your services. I've got to say, brilliant market research. You thoroughly understand this group. I bet all the Jersey guys signed up.
 

Randall Ave

PlowSite Fanatic
So your capitalist strategy here is to insult everyone's intelligence in an attempt to get them to sign up for your services. I've got to say, brilliant market research. You thoroughly understand this group. I bet all the Jersey guys signed up.
Hey now, we ain't signen up for nothen over here. Seriously, for being a new guy, he realy likes to go negative at the gate, does he plow snow with a Walter?
 

Michael J. Donovan

Head Moderator, Online Communities
Staff member
Location
Pennsylvania
Ok, if you don't want to converse with another then simply ignore them...and once again, there is NO need to take shots at another member, nor call names, etc.!
 
OP
wxdavid

wxdavid

Senior Member
For every day out, a weather forecast loses 10% of its accuracy. That is right, after 10 days it is no better than a guess.
that is actually false


It depends on what you are looking for in a forecast Beyond six or seven days. If you are looking for let's say specific maximum temperatures 9 days from now for say Chicago Illinois… well you are correct - it is not possible to forecast that… at least not yet in the science.

And part of the problem is that if you go to sites like AccuWeather or weather.com they give you these forecasts with temperatures with e precipitation or Cloud icons on your smartphone or on the website.

It's one of the reasons why I do not do and will never do weather apps. Because I don't think they are accurate and most of them are computer-generated. most weather apps are usually pretty good when the weather is comment rank will but when you're dealing with snow storms or hurricanes or a severe weather outbreak the various smartphone weather apps on not very good

But that doesn't mean you can't figure out what the overall pattern is going to be . For example there are distinct patterns in the jet stream that produce or strongly favor Arctic air mass outbreaks or snow storm patterns that impact the Midwest and great lakes or snow storm patterns which impact the East Coast. This is also true for other locations all around the planet so if you know those patterns look like you can tell people ahead of time with some degree of certainty that it looks like it's going to be a significant snow storm in a particular area.
 
Last edited:
OP
wxdavid

wxdavid

Senior Member
Who’s graphics do you use?
I use several sites as all private mets

Tropical tidbits
pivotal weather this is gription service not the general stuff
weather models.com
Wxbell.com
Stormvista.com
CMC
Meteo france MJO plots

Just to name a few
 

Hydromaster

PlowSite Fanatic
Location
406
that is actually false
In fact, the American Meteorological Society states that "forecast of daily or specific weather conditions do not exhibit useful skill beyond 8 days, meaning the accuracy is low."

But I quoted a scientist .
here I’ll quote another one.
“Any forecasts past 8 days when it comes to specific parameters are basically aking to throwing darts at a dartboard.

Ps
Aren’t all of the models you use and claim for accuracy, computer generated?
 

Hydromaster

PlowSite Fanatic
Location
406
Maybe you’re very good at analyzing the dataer.
your dater looks like everybody else is a dater so I’m wondering what you’re putting together that is so unique?

Can you show where your accuracy is far better than the others?


But when I go to your weather page and read your forecasts I come up against all of these political agenda posts you have and I just stop reading. It’s not very Professional and I expect my weather scientist to be a professional.

good luck and Happy Forecasting
 

BossPlow2010

PlowSite Fanatic
Location
SE Michigan
Maybe you’re very good at analyzing the dataer.
your dater looks like everybody else is a dater so I’m wondering what you’re putting together that is so unique?

Can you show where your accuracy is far better than the others?


But when I go to your weather page and read your forecasts I come up against all of these political agenda posts you have and I just stop reading. It’s not very Professional and I expect my weather scientist to be a professional.

good luck and Happy Forecasting
I think a lot of people get that view, there's even a Reddit thread on this.
But I agree with Hydro, what sets you apart from say, Joe Bastardi?
 

Fourteen Contracting Inc.

PlowSite.com Addict
Location
Vaughan, Ontario
who did I insult?

Here, you're insulting Mark

what sort of Nutcase cite NATURAL news as s valid source of science information?

AMRK you do Understand what and how science works right ?

Idiot reasoning mark. Come on dude.
you cannot be this obtuse

Here you're insulting Michael Moore, though I don't think you'll get much blowback from members here

MICHAEL MOORE?

who cares what that tub of crap says or thinks?

Here you're insulting Andy

that clever... but its not the same thing genius

And I think you were insulting the suburbanite on this one

i Know facts dont matter to folks like you
 
OP
wxdavid

wxdavid

Senior Member
what sort of Nutcase cite NATURAL news as s valid source of science information? --
I was asking if Mark was a nutcase. NATURAL news is NOT a legit science web site

=========

Idiot reasoning mark. Come on dude.
you cannot be this obtuse


saying someone IS an idiot is an insult.
Saying someone is using idiotic reasoning NOT an insult.

=======

tub of crap refers to Michael Moore the filmmaker

==========

that clever... but its not the same thing genius
wow... how is THAT an insult?


================

i Know facts dont matter to folks like you
Ok that was an insult.
but I said that after comments were made about meteorologists in a political thread which is way off base and totally unfair
 
OP
wxdavid

wxdavid

Senior Member
Let's be clear about this …
Comment that say “all weathermen suck” or “ they are just guessing” or “they don't know what they are doing” is an insult.

And comments saying that all scientists are bought off … that you don't need to follow the Science you need to follow the money -- a comment somebody made yesterday in the political section -- IS a direct and professional insult upon all scientists of which I am one.
 

Top Forums

Similar threads

Similar threads

Top