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Sunspots the key?

Discussion in 'Weather' started by The MAG Man, Oct 18, 2008.

  1. The MAG Man

    The MAG Man Junior Member
    Messages: 26

    This is the first thread I've ever started here so bear with me while I figure out the system please. If I have screwed up please don't flame me, just shoot me a note and tell me what I did wrong and I'll fix it or remove it.

    There is an interesting new issue which has poked its head over the horizon and we’ve been watching this closely because it seems to have a direct affect on our weather: sunspots. More to the point, for those of you who live to see snow, you noticed we have already had our first arctic blast and heavy snowfall in the Pacific Northwest and that was last week; the earliest measureable snowfall they've had in Boise since they started keeping records in 1898.

    We have all heard Al Gore’s global warming presentations. I won’t get into them other than to say that I don’t subscribe to them. I actually think that Al has it both right and wrong; I think he’s right in that we are in global warming and wrong in that this is the beginning of it. More to the point I have read for a few years an on-going body of evidence that confirms we have been in global warming for about the last 100,000 years or so – otherwise we’d be still sitting under 300’ of glacial ice. My belief is that we are at the end of global warming and turning the corner on the next ice age.

    Before everyone hits that delete key or tosses this in the trash, please hear me out. These climate cycles are clearly something that none of us have our arms around and no one can say definitively what’s really happening; science, the Farmer’s Almanac, wooly caterpillars, or my arthritic ankles – they all appear to be equally wrong and unreliable.

    We had global warming for the last 50,000 or so years – that is undeniable simply based on glacial ice receding and our geology. Those round stones around your house got tumbled under the millions of tons of ice that pushed them down from Canada. But what about this new ice age you ask?

    To know more about this please do a little light reading at places like the International Climate and Science Coalition, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, and this 2004 article in Science Daily. Truth or myth? I don’t know, you tell me. Sunspots virtually ended early-winter last winter and immediately following that we had the hardest, coldest, snowiest winter in 50 years across the entire northern hemisphere. Before dismissing this as quack science and embracing the Al Gore doctrine, please read up and form your own views. I think you’ll be a little bit surprised and enlightened in what you find.

    I have been in the snow and ice control chemical business for over 35 years. In that time I have noticed that things seem to run in cycles. A former competitor once summed it up by saying the deicer business is two years of mediocrity, followed by one year of bliss, followed by two years of misery. What he meant was one out of five years would be great, two lousy, and two average but not necessarily in that order.

    We have seen a lot of those “mediocrity years” in certain regions and that was a significant factor in the municipal and private markets being lulled into a sense of false security over the past 6 or 7 years in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. It hadn’t snowed like “the old days” for almost a decade so who needs a lot deicers on hand? They found out the hard way last winter and they are still reeling and finding out both financially and with severe shortages just how wrong they were.

    This seems like a good place to start this discussion so take a look at the links I've embedded above, read the information that I am reading, and tell me how you interpret it?

    I think there's a good chance that we are going to be seeing a lot of snow.

    There is one final noteworthy point for me though. For the past 35 years I have found that there is one factor that has never failed me for predicting a bad (as in NO SNOW) winter and I'll share it with you guys: If I get snowflakes in my yard in October, it is a washout year with warm and rainy winter. It has nothing to do with anything but for whatever reason, if it snows on my yard (I now live in Wrentham, MA) in October the winter sucks for snow. I have lived in New England for the past 37 years and this all started in '73 when I was living in Hartford and had just gone to work for a company in the deicer chemical business. I got snow in October '73 in my yard and I remember thinking "oh man, this is great - it's October and its already snowing - I picked the right job!" and that winter was awful and we had virtually no snow. Ever since then I have noted any year that I saw snowflakes in my yard in October it sucked for snowfall and this barometer has never failed me. I can't say what it will be if it DOESN'T snow, but if it does, the winter will be a washout for sure - or at least that has been the case for me for almost 4 decades.

    I get dozens of calls on November 1st every year from friends, competitors, and customers all asking the same question: "Did you get snow in your yard in October?" I'm no weatherman, but I will be glad to give my final "pre-season" report on my indicator on November 1st to anyone who is interested.

    For now, I am watching sunspot activity like a dog staring at a steakbone on a table.
  2. basher

    basher PlowSite Fanatic
    from 19707
    Messages: 8,993

    Hope you're wearing UV protection:jester:

    Waiting for 11/1:waving:
  3. RichG53

    RichG53 PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,135

    I believe.................Just Waite and see......
  4. ducatirider944

    ducatirider944 Senior Member
    from Iowa
    Messages: 469

    I watched a show last winter with this weather guru that has like a 90+% batting average. Dr. i forget his name, but basically talked about the suns cycles and the sun is going into a recession. Basically he said if you haven't liked this winter up to this point, move south, the next 10-12 yrs will be the same, just get worse.:eek:
  5. mulcahy mowing

    mulcahy mowing Senior Member
    Messages: 718

    i would agree with that statement winters where we get snow in October the winter is a wash out i didn't put it together until now but your right now that i think about it...interesting
  6. bike5200

    bike5200 Senior Member
    from Ky
    Messages: 437

    Snow Day uses sunspot in his forecast too. He has a few threads Weather
  7. The MAG Man

    The MAG Man Junior Member
    Messages: 26

    For anyone who was interested to know, I did not get one flake on my yard in October which means the winter is not a guaranteed washout. I don't know what it will be, but any guarantee of rain passed without delivery.

    We are running through deicer materials like the world is headed for the next ice age. In 35 years of doing this we've never seen demand this strong.

    As I've said for a while, if it doesn't snow we will just make it for supply, but if it does snow it will be an ugly year of severe shortages. The harder it snows the uglier it will be.

    I'm ok with that! [​IMG][​IMG]
  8. xtreem3d

    xtreem3d PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,548

    last year someone posted a great article by john coleman, founder of the weather channel, refuting nearly every claim that al gore and proponants of global warming were claiming...basically it had to do with what duactirider said about sunspot cycles