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Discussion starter · #802 ·
So it's going to be a regular grand slam of storm after storm for the next 10+ days. February is ripping this year boys and girls!!!!

Interesting tid bit but NWS regional offices have different criteria for issuing warnings and advisories:


Moving right along and into Super Sunday Storm Shenanigans! Wind should not be a factor in this one as the highest winds appear pre storm today and Sunday morning seen here:

Here we can see the track and if it shifts north we will see a significant increase in snowfall amounts. This is a fast mover as it comes offshore tonight around midnight and is on SNE's doorstep by 8AM Sunday!


Here we have the P-type from 7AM sunday to 7PM sunday


Sunday morning 2m temps

Monday 7AM 2m temps

NAM 3km High res snowfall projected for Sunday's event

NWS Projected output

Onset times

End times

Lets look at just some of the next storms coming our way

Tomorrows

Tuesday/Wed

Friday

Next Wed

ECMWF Projected snowfall loop next 10 days


Think the groundhog was right this year!

Plow on Wayne!!!!!
 
I think I had 8 inches here in Norwalk .They are talking Tuesday what do you see ?
 
Discussion starter · #805 ·
Well it's snowing again......

We still have a very active pattern on our hands with multiple threats incoming. It's looking like the Thurs/Fri system will be sliding to our south and not impacting SNE. However their is opportunity still for the V-Day storm and another one mid week next week.

The current on going event I still like the 4-6" North of I84.

Quick recap of last storm with snowfall totals:


See the NAM had a slight hiccup this morning:


But it is right back in the game as seen in the left image (note the left image is always going to be the most recent run).

The snow should be wrapping up early this evening:

Moving along....

Looking to be a cold and snowy next few weeks. Here we have the CFSv2 2m Temp anomaly:



And going way out next 30 days


And to reinforce what that climate model sees, here we have a 2m snap for next Tuesday just before another possible major system impact.


So lets check some tracks real quick of the next systems

Thurs/Friday sliding south


Sunday impact


Tues/Weds possible hammer

7 day snow outlook


Possible snowfall Tues/Weds

32 Day outlook


Comparing weeklies 32 day projected snowfall. Model seems to keep it's thoughts...


GFS seems to agree


Comparing next 7 day projected snowfall outputs run to run

OOOOOooooh Boy we have an uptick!

Stay tuned we got more to come here at Snowapalooza Two Thousand and Twenty ONE!

 
Discussion starter · #808 ·
Most recent event totals


CFSv2 2m Temp anomaly next 30


So we have a lot still going on, the parade of systems keeps coming and I spy another one as far out as the 19th. Starting Friday we will have three pieces of energy on CONUS and models are going to have a difficult time with accuracy here.

As it stands it appears Thursdays event will be sliding south of us and missing SNE. However Saturday night thru Sunday expect to pick up another possible 3-6" and then we have a real mess coming Tues/Wed of snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, failing temps, dogs sleeping with cats, COMPLETE PANDEMONIUM!!! And then another possibility later that week.

Here we see the next one sliding to our south:


Saturday thru Sunday


Funny picture

GFS (this is just for posterity, it's useless)

Canadian


Now the more interesting one starting on Tuesday

Oh man would you look at that....

Temps in the 850mb support that


2m Temps Tuesday moring

And here we get a little warm wed

And then right back down wed night


Some output ideas

Frz Rain


Sleet

Snow


Keeping an eye on the new one


Snow outlook


Stay tuned as the fun continues!
 
I need freezing rain like i need a hole in my head
 
Discussion starter · #810 ·
And the fun continues..... Lots to talk about here with the next storm approaching tomorrow and the following system Monday! As temps will continue to be below avg and the possibilities of events just keep coming all the way out to March 5th. Winter keeps on and then gets ugly possibly.

Currently many places in SNE are above avg for seasonal snowfall as seen here as of Feb 12th


So lets take a look at what is coming tomorrow. All conditions are right for snow and it appears this one might linger around for a bit. Lets check surface temps first starting with Thursday 8am

With the warmest being Thursday at 3PM

Friday morning at 8am (keep in mind the system will still be ongoing) temps

With the high of the day Friday afternoon at 2PM

Jumping to Sunday morning at 7AM

And Monday morning at 4AM

So we have old in place through out the next 2 events.

Lets hop up to the 850mb or roughly 5,000 feet and check that temp for the duration of the next storm

As you see we stay in the snow zone through the entire duration. Spekaing of duration lets take a look at track and how long this thing might stick around for.


So thats the GFS from 7AM Thursday to 7AM Sunday as you can see this lingers a bit right through Saturday. This only gives us a brief break Sunday before the next system on Monday, more on that later.

So lets take a look at some projected totals and model run comparisons. I will give you a lot here and we will discuss.

NAM 12km Kuchera (this is the output I like the best, thus far)


GFS 10:1

GFS Kuchera

Canadian 10:1

Now I am saving the ECMWF for last because it seems to be the most outlying model on this so far

10:1

Kuchera

We shall see what the 06z and 12z have to offer coming up.... I will probably post that over on the Facebook page.

Lets look at some model run comparisons.

ECMWF

GFS

NAM 12km


Newest run is always on the left so you can see some trend shifting however the GFS seems to like what it sees consistently.

Lets see what the NWS Boston office has in mind

And their on set times
 
Discussion starter · #811 ·
And finally we have the lowest amount possibly projected at

So with all those funny pictures out of the way I feel the 8-12 is a good call for the majority of SNE with locally higher areas. Does not appear to be any mixing and winds dont seem to come into play until Saturday as the system is fizzling out.

Here we have gusts on Friday afternoon

And significant gusting on Saturday afternoon

With it really kicking up later Saturday afternoon

Ok so lets recap this event before moving on to Mondays and longer term outlooks.

It's going to be cold, it's going to snow, it's going to linger around for awhile, it's not going to be windy until the end and as the system moves out. We are looking at a general 8-12" as of now and a start time of around 7AM Thursday with the main event coming in later in the day and going into Friday then sticking around being annoying until late Saturday.

So lets now take a quick look at Mondays shenanigans

Oh boy I am not liking that change over at the end! We will have to keep a close eye on this one while watching the next 24-48hrs worth of winter fun.

Then we have a little clipper coming thru around Wed. the 24th


What is this icyness on Sat the 27th


Wait more around the 3rd


But wait even more around the 5th

So we have all of that........

Quick look at the projected 32 day snowfalls

ECMWF

GEFS

And the big finale.....I give you the CFSv2 2m temp anomaly 5day from Feb 23 to April 5th animated for your viewing pleasure


Holy smokes that was a lot to cover as you can see weather wise we have a lot going on the next few weeks. Looking more and more like that ground hog was right. However the systems way out into march will need to be watched as they may be more of an icing event for SNE then snow. With snow being more of a northern thing.

I hope I didn't forget anything I think we got it covered, I feel exhausted after this post! No rest for the wicked off to fix snow equipment!

Stay frosty!

Oh and changing a few things up with a new email address on the weather letter (shifting everything around in line with the facebook page) Im not really sure where any of this is going but its a thing and the changes are more to keep it separated.....and expand!
 
whats the start time on this storm
 
Ok is there more snow tomorrow or is that it for the weekend >?
 
I know March we have had some good snowstorms
 
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