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Looks like a big Eastern storm for Thanksgiving week

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Wilnip, Nov 22, 2013.

  1. Wilnip

    Wilnip Senior Member
    Messages: 592


    ** the event in 11/27 the BIG travel days. This event is not gong to miss.. MAKE ALTERNATE TRAVEL PLANS ASAP

    roads airports rains will be a nightmare 11/27 from NC to Maine


    One of the things that you do when you spend your time forecasting 3 DAYS... 5 DAYS... 7 DAYS ...12 DAYS ... 15 DAYS out ...is that you have these guidelines or rules which have to do with How to read and adjust the data coming from the weather models this far out in time.

    One of the big rules that I use is that when you have a number of different possible solutions ...when 1 Model shows XYZ and the other models do not... if there is a shifts in the other odels towards XYZ...it usually mean XYZ is going to be correct.

    What is significant here tonight is that the one model which showed this Low missing all of the big cities of I--95 with either very little or no significant precipitation.. the LAST 14 runs of the GFS -- has now turned around and in a dramatic fashion now shows a major nor'easter. The turnaround is so dramatic and so overwhelming that it may spark some skepticism. The GFS run from 6 hours ago has all areas north of Central Virginia completely dry for all of 11/26 11/27 and 11/28 .

    Now the GFS shows a HISTORIC coastal storm that would be one for the record books / given that it's thanksgiving. Again this sort of massive reversal from the GFS is one of the reasons why I really do not like this model when it comes to East Coast winter storms beyond 84 hours.

    As I said 4 days ago this looks to me to be a significant if not major Appalachian Mts snowstorm from western NC and southwestern VA right up into the interior portions of New England and western Maine. The 0z GFS strongly supports the idea.

    Even more impressive is that as the LOW " BOMBS OUT " in the coastal waters of the northeast US ...the interaction between the exploding Low and the massive Arctic HIGH coming in from MN develops a huge amount of wind. If the GFS is correct there will be WINDS up to 60 mph across much of the Northeast Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

    IF the GFS is right IF .. Snow Amounts greater than 12" would be POSSIBLE... over MOUNTAINS f WVA far western VA western MD much of central and Northeast PA eastern and interior SE NY northwest CT western and central MAS all of VT most of NH & Maine.

    Over the coastal areas of central and Eastern NC VA eastern MD DEL southeastern PA much of NJ NYC and Eastern New England rain amounts would be heavy... easily over 1 inch perhaps as much as 2 or 3" in some places.
  2. rbyrnesjr

    rbyrnesjr Member
    Messages: 40

    Sounds good to me.
  3. unit28

    unit28 PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 6,634

    Last edited: Nov 23, 2013
  4. Lone136

    Lone136 Senior Member
    Messages: 108

    Well this sounds like a good time for our first real snow fall here in Pa and I hope it comes. Sure need the cash for my little girl for Christmas this year. Was hoping to have a new spreader this year, but will here to wait for now

    FISHERBOY Senior Member
    Messages: 542

    starting as light snow then going over to sleet, freezing rain, then changing to heavy rain tomorrow night, maybe changing over to snow Wednesday evening maybe 1-3. Remember its only November
  6. Wilnip

    Wilnip Senior Member
    Messages: 592

    4-6" for us with sleet and freezing rain at times.

    FISHERBOY Senior Member
    Messages: 542

    very nice, and good luck, have fun with the snow.
  8. Grasshoppage

    Grasshoppage Junior Member
    Messages: 9

    I think you called it .. Nice Job!
  9. Wilnip

    Wilnip Senior Member
    Messages: 592

    Thanks, but I just copied and pasted. Lol