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Get ready NJ & Philly area!! :)

Discussion in 'Commercial Snow Removal' started by Derrick in NJ, Feb 18, 2005.

  1. Derrick in NJ

    Derrick in NJ Member
    Messages: 32

    Ok gang, hope you don't mind this long copy & paste here. This is from Rob Guarino from Fox29 in Philly. I think he's a pretty good forecaster (probably the best in the area), and he's been pretty accurate for the past few years. This looks like it's gonna be a plowable event for us, and the best part is, it's gonna happen after the Daytona 500!! So, I get to enjoy the race, take a nap, and make some payup too!! Enjoy!


    The models are coming colser together for a solution Sunday night and Monday. This is a classic overunning event with the usual snow to mix to rain. Here is the latest from the models.


    The snow starts about 1-3am Monday with a burst overnight. Expect 2-4" by 8:00am before the change to a mix and rain. The LOW takes the MD to Middletown DE to Millville NJ and out to sea route. Expect 2-4" on this model.


    Takes the LOW from Eastern Kansas to Cleveland. The HIGH is elongted from Toronto to VA Beach with no shortage of cold air over the weekend. The end result on this model is snow to mix to rain with 2-4" maybe 3-5" likely here.

    GFS...1pm run today

    It takes the LOW from Iowa to Ann Arbor to Erie PA Northeast of us. The HIGH is elongated from Ottawa to the SE coast just like the ECMWF model. Snow starts after 10pm Sunday night with a burst of 2-4" by Monday before daybreak. Snow mixes with sleet and frz. rain to all rain by 9am. 2-4" of snow likely with an isolated 5" in the hills of Chester/Montco counties.

    JMA----Japan Model

    It looks pretty much the same as the other models with a LOW trying to form near the Delmarva coast but never really gets going. It says 2-4" as well with the snow to rain deal. Climo says this is what we typically see in the Delaware Valley after February 15th so this is looking right on track as of tonight.


    It plays an all snow event here. Why ? It takes the LOW from Central Ill. to Cleveland. It transfers the energy off the coast to a weak LOW off the Delmarva. This allows the rain snow line to stay south of Dover DE and Millville NJ. 2-4" on the model but 3-5" could also be in the works due to longer cold period and energy transfer.


    Sunday Night it shows the LOW over Ann Arbor, MI and the HIGH out at sea. The LOW travels to Cape Cod.

    NAM 7pm tonight (latest run)

    This looks interesting. It takes the LOW to WV NOT north like some of the other models. It looks to be more in line with the NOGAPS. It even looks to get some moisture from a developing coastal LOW. Now this is the first run @ 84 hrs so we'll see if the trend is more south on the other models in the next 48 hrs. This time around a more southerly track means more snow here and less of a chance to mix as the HIGH locks in the cold air further south and longer.

    NAO...plays its part !

    The NAO is going negative and that will create a blocking pattern to the Northeast of the HIGH over Maine and Nova Scotia. This could mean a better chance of the southern track and lock us into a sure snowfall of 3-5". This trend will be watched carefully the next few days.


    I still like the 1-3" South, Southwest and Southeast of Philadelphia. 2-4" for areas North, Northeast and West of Philly. Could we go higher ? Yes, but I think at the most, we would get 6".

    updated on 02.17.05
  2. Derrick in NJ

    Derrick in NJ Member
    Messages: 32

    Another day, another storm! : )

    Finally!!! We're gonna get snow again. Todays forecast is for 6-8" in Philly and the 'burbs :redbounce . Next week is shaping up to be pretty eventful too, with a big storm forecasted for monday into tuesday, and one at the end of the week on Friday. Be safe out there gang, and let's make tons 'o payup :D

    JPMAKO Senior Member
    Messages: 660

    Two to three storms a week is what we likes. payup

  4. snowinjoe

    snowinjoe Senior Member
    Messages: 180

    Just as I was fallin asleep last night I heard the local weather guy say something about that storm he said it may be the storm of the year I just hope it makes its way a little more north then toronto.
  5. Bolts Indus.

    Bolts Indus. PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,176

    Sorry snowinjoe but it is reseved for Nova Scotia.
    Funny thing, my partner/son told me 2 months ago about the prediction for a monster storm for Feb. It was predicted to be the mother of all storms this year. Let's see what happens. Trucks and bobcat are ready to go. :yow!: Been sitting for a month now. Can you believe that? :)
  6. snowinjoe

    snowinjoe Senior Member
    Messages: 180

    I must be thinkin of a different storm or maybe I was just dreamin. But Im sure he said Mon. for southern Ont.
  7. Bolts Indus.

    Bolts Indus. PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,176

    Yes, I think you are thinking of another storm. Seems there is a possible 3-4 storms for monday and next week all over the country. Well we can only hope so.
  8. Derrick in NJ

    Derrick in NJ Member
    Messages: 32

    They're lining up like a conga line!! : )

    Early reports for next monday into tuesday say 8-16"! :bluebounc :drinkup: payup And another one possibly on Friday! This is great, getting ready to head out in about 30 minutes. Be safe gang!! :D
  9. Bolts Indus.

    Bolts Indus. PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,176

    I think Febuary is a month late coming. She will want to catch up though. Ever hear the old expression " If the snow don't come now it will come later, but it will come". Averages are averages.
  10. gt_racer50

    gt_racer50 Senior Member
    from Ohio
    Messages: 484

    As warm as it's been except for in Canada, you had better plow quick, because is melts real quickl!!!!!!!