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EL NINO BUZZ... 2009-2010 Winter comes up close to now

Discussion in 'Weather' started by rob guarino, Sep 27, 2012.

  1. rob guarino

    rob guarino Member
    from AZ
    Messages: 68

  2. unit28

    unit28 PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 6,634

    Most of the dynamical models, along with roughly one-half of the statistical models, now predict
    the onset of El Niño beginning in August-October 2012, persisting through the remainder of the year
    (Figs. F1-F13). The consensus of dynamical models indicates a borderline moderate strength event
    (Niño 3.4 index near +1.0°C), while the statistical model consensus indicates a borderline weak
    El Niño (+0.4° to +0.5°C). Supported by the model forecasts and the continued warmth across the
    Pacifi c Ocean, the offi cial forecast calls for the development of most likely a weak El Niño during
    September 2012, persisting through December-February 2012-13.

    Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction
    Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).

    Last year I claimed this would turn out to be a season of grasshoppers.
    Now, going into 2013....I'm putting in a pool.

    Good Night

    FISHERBOY Senior Member
    Messages: 542

    I wouldn;t believe anything the CPC says
  4. unit28

    unit28 PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 6,634

    looking at statistical performance from modeling data-sets....It ain't a bad gamble.

    At lead times of 3 or more months into the future, statistical and dynamical models that incorporate information about the ocean's observed subsurface thermal structure generally exhibit higher predictive skill than those that do not. For the Dec-Feb season, among models that do use subsurface temperature information, 20% predict ENSO-neutral SSTs, and 80% predict El Niño conditions.

    I'll take the odds.