Does EL Ninio mean snow or no snow?

75

PlowSite.com Addict
I believe that in the thesaurus, "guess" and "weatherman" are interchangable terms....... :p

My understanding of El Nino/La Nina is the same as yours: "El Nino" brings the mild winter(s) and "La Nina" the harsher ones.......................
 

DaveK

Senior Member
Ok, i found a little info:

The phenomenon of changing ocean temperatures known as La Nina and El Nino... .... Or La Nada which is neutral.
La Nina brings warmer temps, while El Nino brings cooler temps.
--------------

And isn't this just like the weartheman.

There is a good chance that the La Nina conditions that have held since 1998 will be tapering off, and that we'll have perhaps more El Nino conditions for next summer. No one can say, but the odds are that you'll probably have a little more rain for next summer.

AND

But there are early signs of an El Nino weather pattern (associated with dry/drought conditions) is developing.
So which is it, more rain or drought?


All of the above quotes where copied from weather related sites.

I'm more confused now than before. :confused:
 

BRL

PlowSite.com - Veteran
Location
Somerset, NJ
OK My understanding of El Nino\Nina is that Each will create drought and rainy situations for different regions. For example, El Nino brings more rain to the Southwest and drought to the Southeast, while La Nina will bring dry weather to the SW and wet weather to the SE. This is why you see a statemnet saying the El Nino will bring drought & rain LOL. Maybe each of those quotes came from different sites with emphasis on different regions?

"
quote:
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The phenomenon of changing ocean temperatures known as La Nina and El Nino... .... Or La Nada which is neutral.
La Nina brings warmer temps, while El Nino brings cooler temps.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"
OK I'm going from memory here but I believe that means:
The La Nina results in warmer central Pacific Ocean temps which brings in colder air masses and the jet streams pulling to the south for North America, generally meaning snowier, colder winter weather. El Nino results in cooler Pacific ocean temps which brings warmer air masses and pulls the jets streams north resulting in less snowy, warmer winters for NA. I think I watched a Discovery Channel show on this before LOL, but I could have remembered it wrong.
 

sledhead

Member
Location
S.E. Mich.
I agree

I think BRL is right on this one.
El Nino brings cooler wetter summers and warmer drier winters.
Whereas La Nina does just the opposite.
 

#1 plowtech

Senior Member
Location
United States
Getting more,and more depressed !!!

Special discussion on El Nino rumblings:

The major media outlets have begun to ring the El Nino bells recently, so I thought I would put my thoughts to words and say what is on my mind with regards to this subject. I really did not want to bring this subject to the surface in fear of adding more bad news to an already disappointing winter, but oh well.

First of all, it is important to keep in mind that El Nino is such a large event, encompassing thousands of square miles in the Equatorial Pacific, that it is more important to note the trend of things going on there over the course of a month or more, not just the past week or two. It is true that waters in part of the "El Nino region" have been warming. The warming is taking place where traditionally the waters warm first. Other areas that warm as an El Nino event matures are still at to below average at the moment. Also, because the area than an El Nino encompasses, is so large, an El Nino event is usually rather slow to fully develop, taking months, rather than weeks or days.

So with those to points in mind, I seriously doubt that an El Nino will develop to the point where this winter will be adversely effected (like is seems to matter anyway!). For several months now, the models that try and forecast an El Nino have been indicating that one could develop in the coming year and that forecast does look to be panning out. Thus, we could very well have an El Nino to deal with for next winter. What does that mean? Well, El Nino’s typically weaken the polar jet (the snow making jet across the northern US) and strengthen the sub tropical jet (the jet that develops storms across the southern US). Hence, in El Nino years, much of the northern US and southern Canada sees warmer than average temperatures with a pronounced absence of snowfall. The exceptions can be in far northern New England and up into eastern Quebec, where colder than average conditions and snowier than average winters can occur.

As with anything in the weather, there are no guarantees. The El Nino may not even develop, or may only develop into a weak one, or it may not have the impacts that is normally does. There are still a lot of things that could happen. However, if an El Nino does develop, the odds that the northern US and southern Canada will see a milder and less snowy winter than average do increase significantly.

:(
 

BRL

PlowSite.com - Veteran
Location
Somerset, NJ
It sounds like I remembered my El Nino info correctly LOL. The impending El Nino that is suddenly in the media was forecast or predicted late last summer. However, like Wes said, it shouldn't affect our winter until next year. It will probably be making its summer effects felt for this coming summer, if it continues to develop. Now, if they could just forecast the next day's weather correctly or even close, I'd be a happy man. They haven't gotten one system correct in the last 2.5 weeks around here. They even reported sunny & 40 degrees during & before an ice storm the other day in the DC\Virginia area that caused 1,000's of accidents.
 

BRL

PlowSite.com - Veteran
Location
Somerset, NJ
I just read some info that suggests we are currently already in what is considered a "weak" El Nino. So our present winter could (and hopefully will) be affected by this. The reason I say hopefully is that the current conditions are similar to the winters of 77-78, 92-93 and 95-96, each of which saw "Blockbuster" Noreaster Storms affecting the whole East coast & well inland. I actually don't enjoy those types of storms now that I plow (too much!) but I'll take what I can get at this point.
 
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