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60 degrees on December 14th in NJ!!!

Discussion in 'Weather' started by mkwl, Dec 14, 2006.

  1. mkwl

    mkwl 2000 Club Member
    Messages: 2,362

    It's 60 degrees here :angry: When is it going to get cold!?!? It's one of the warmest Decembers on record so far :realmad: I'm going to have to start mowing again if it doesn't start getting cold soon...we had colder weather in October!:eek: Who thinks it'll change over to to cold weather with snow, who thinks this will be the winter that never was? I sure hope we get snow soon!!!:nod:
  2. SmsSnowPlowing

    SmsSnowPlowing Junior Member
    Messages: 12

    Yeah we getting depressed here as well. Something needs to happen lol
  3. BigDave12768

    BigDave12768 PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,446

    If you search for winter forecast for 06-07 you will see that they fully expected this warmth. They even claim we will not get any snow in January. They are calling for a very busy February and March when it comes to storms. Sucks but thats what they are calling for. But who knows they are never right.

    AccuWeather.com Releases 2006–2007 Winter Forecast
    El Niño To Have an Effect, But How Much?

    (State College, PA - October 18, 2006) - AccuWeather.com Chief Long–Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi believes that the current El Niño pattern will be one of the factors that determines the nature of the coming winter, but that the government’s weather service is overplaying its effects. Unlike the National Weather Service forecast, Bastardi does not see this winter being warmer than normal across the vast majority of the country. Overall, the AccuWeather.com Winter 2006–2007 Forecast calls for a cooler-than-normal winter along the East Coast and eastern Gulf Coast, and a warmer–than–normal winter from the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest.

    An El Niño–a cyclical occurrence of warmer–than–normal Pacific waters–can have repercussions on worldwide weather patterns, particularly a strong El Niño, which features water temperatures that are significantly warmer over a broad expanse of tropical ocean. However, Bastardi’s research points to an El Niño that will remain at its current weak to moderate level, and may even weaken as the winter progresses. Because of this, a "typical" El Niño winter–such as the one predicted by the National Weather Service last week–that features warmer–than–normal temperatures across much of the U.S. is not as likely to occur.

    "We predict that the current El Niño will not be only determinant of this year’s winter weather," said Bastardi. "This year’s winter will hinge on the timing and interaction of complex meteorological factors that would be overridden by a stronger El Niño that others seem to be expecting."

    One of these factors that Bastardi and his team expect to shape the upcoming season is the formation of a high pressure area over Greenland or northeastern Canada. This would force Arctic air down into the Northeast. If this occurs as expected, the Northeast could experience severe, prolonged cold–ten days or more of temperatures averaging five to ten degrees below normal–during the middle to late winter, most likely during the month of January.

    "Signs are pointing to the possibility of a rough conclusion to winter for the Northeast," said AccuWeather.com Director of Forecast Operations Ken Reeves. "Examining past years where we see similar patterns to what we expect this winter bears this out. For example, the winter of 1992–1993 was moderate until early February, when it then became colder and snowier, and culminated with a harsh blizzard on March 13. Another of the winters we see a parallel to is 1957–1958, which again began more moderately, and concluded with significantly colder temperatures and major February and March snow storms."

    Bastardi sums up his expectations for the upcoming December to February period this way: "the eastern U.S. will experience a colder–than–normal winter overall. The area from the eastern and central Great Lakes to the south–central and southwestern U.S. will experience near–normal winter temperatures. The region that stretches from the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest will likely see above–normal temperatures."

    Bastardi forecasts a wetter–than–average swath from southern and central California to the southern Plains and Southeast and up the East Coast, because an expected active subtropical jet stream will send storms on a track across the southern U.S. and likely ensure wet weather in the southern tier of the nation. How this moisture times itself with the arrival of colder air will determine how much snow the Northeast can expect, but winter is likely to be snowier than normal in the region–a mainstay of all winters since 2002. Very warm water relative to normal off all coasts provides ample moisture for any storm and, timed with cold air, would lend itself to heavy snowfall in the higher elevations of the Southwest and Southeast, and also the chance for some major coastal storms on the East Coast.

    The pattern AccuWeather.com forecasts for the winter could lead to a significant problem next summer: the increased threat of wildfires. "The wetter pattern across the southern half of California and into the Southwest may spell yet another bad season for wildfires next year," said Reeves, "as the vegetation that flourishes this rainy season dies next year under the intense summer sun."
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2006
  4. BigDave12768

    BigDave12768 PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,446

    The weather guy for New England just said that next week it will get colder and we may have a snow storm on the 24/25
  5. Andy N.

    Andy N. Senior Member
    Messages: 236

    Big Dave-check that Accuweather now, they are singing a different tune...that El Nino is stronger than anticipated and will continue to cause the mild temps for the NorthEast.
  6. mkwl

    mkwl 2000 Club Member
    Messages: 2,362

    This weather in UNBELEIVEABLE!!! We hit a high of 63 degrees today, I'm thinking it may never snow again!:realmad: :angry: :realmad: :cry:

    I WANT SNOW!!!!!!!!
  7. JohnsonLawn

    JohnsonLawn Member
    Messages: 78

    Some of the worst winters on record started this way guys. Hell, winter doesn't even start until the 21st of Dec., so there is plenty of time. I'm still doing landscape work, so it can hold off a little longer and I won't mind.
  8. starc

    starc Senior Member
    Messages: 229

    All Hail El Nino
    I'm enjoying this...
  9. TPC Services

    TPC Services Senior Member
    Messages: 875

    heck with that I 'm getting ready to but a bullet in EL NINOS A-- all hail :gunsfiring: :gunsfiring:
  10. Lawnscape89

    Lawnscape89 Senior Member
    Messages: 213

    Yeah, this weather is starting to remind me of last January - Not one event for the whole month. But last December, that was the best in a long time - down here at least - 3 events before Christmas!!

    It'll turn around.... I hope... and pray!!!
  11. starc

    starc Senior Member
    Messages: 229

    These are the years that contracts pay off, makes up for some of the bad ones...