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Winter Outlook

Discussion in 'Weather' started by alacweather, Nov 14, 2014.

  1. alacweather

    alacweather Junior Member
    Messages: 6

    Hi everyone, here are our winter outlooks for the season. Any questions, feel free to comment!

    Wisconsin/Minnesota/Iowa/N. Illinois: http://wxc.alacweather.com/consulting/outlooks/Winter2014-15_WisconsinMinnesotaIowa.pdf

    Missouri/Southern Illinois: http://wxc.alacweather.com/consulting/outlooks/Winter2014-15_MissouriIllinois.pdf

    Ohio/Indiana:
    http://wxc.alacweather.com/consulting/outlooks/Winter2014-15_OhioIndiana.pdf

    If there's a region we didn't cover and you have a question, feel free to post it too . Get ready for a cold one!
     
  2. Mark Oomkes

    Mark Oomkes PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 10,903

    Michigan???
     
  3. LapeerLandscape

    LapeerLandscape PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,613

    They cant predict the weather for Michigan.
     
  4. peteo1

    peteo1 PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,660

    Pennsylvania?
     
  5. alacweather

    alacweather Junior Member
    Messages: 6

    Southern Michigan would follow the trends of Ohio/Indiana outlook, with somewhat below normal temperatures and precipitation. However, areas that experience lake effect snow (especially the UP) should see above normal snowfall.
     
  6. alacweather

    alacweather Junior Member
    Messages: 6

    Pennsylvania (especially western and central sections) will likely see above normal snowfall.
     
  7. Mark Oomkes

    Mark Oomkes PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 10,903

    Ok, but you do understand that the western third or so of the lower peninsula is subject to lake effect as well, right?
     
  8. TMLGC

    TMLGC Senior Member
    Messages: 227

    Southern Maine please??
     
  9. alacweather

    alacweather Junior Member
    Messages: 6

    Yes, though not as significant as the UP. We have many clients in southeast WI which sees lake effect similar to the lower western MI (other side of the lake). Despite that lake effect potential, would still expect below normal snowfall in lower western MI.

    Speaking of lake effect, it is very difficult to account for lake effect snow in these type of outlooks as it is a different type of forecasting than a cyclonic storm system. Long term models cannot grasp lake effect events, as these are often only visible a few days in advance.

    Hopefully that helps.
     
  10. alacweather

    alacweather Junior Member
    Messages: 6

    Potential for significantly above normal snowfall this winter in Maine.
     
  11. Mark Oomkes

    Mark Oomkes PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 10,903

    Southeast Wisconsin really receives as much lake effect as Western Michigan?

    Care to back that statement up?

    Strange that most are saying as cold if not colder than last year, as well as above average snowfall but not as much as last year.
     
  12. alacweather

    alacweather Junior Member
    Messages: 6

    SE WI does not receive as much lake effect as western lower MI being on the west side of the lake (systems move west to east). Sorry if that was confusing in the last post.

    The point was the events are very similar in nature between SE WI and WRN MI when they occur. Lake effect occurs more frequently in WRN MI than SE WI spots. ~120 inches reported last season in some spots in W MI with ~80 inches in SE WI lake effect spots. What is interesting is when you go not too far from the lake and suddenly you can see totals drop significantly. In Milwaukee county last year one location had a total of 80, while another spot a little further inland had only 40 inches.

    Yes, we are predicting temperatures country wide well below normal. Generally if you look at all the outlooks we posted and piece them together there is a swath of normal to above normal snowfall in a few spots from Missouri to southern Ohio to Maine. The rest of the US will see rather below normal totals, especially the upper Midwest. We'll try to put together a graphical map next week.

    -MSS
     
  13. allseasons87

    allseasons87 Senior Member
    Messages: 813

    That's what I've been reading
     
  14. TheXpress2002

    TheXpress2002 2000 Club Member
    from Canton
    Messages: 2,680

    Seems to be following exactly what NOAA posted with their outlook...

    Yes it may be a weak El Nino but there are many other factors besides basing a forecast on just this alone. We have not broken the active pattern with below average temps all year, the likely hood of just flipping the switch and shutting off the precip is unlikely.
     
  15. Citytow

    Citytow Senior Member
    from phila
    Messages: 548

    what other career besides a meteorologist can you be so wrong , fail and still continue to get a paycheck and keep your job ?
     
  16. BUFF

    BUFF PlowSite Fanatic
    from FR NoCo
    Messages: 7,315

    Front Range in Northern Colorado? Thumbs Up
     
  17. TMLGC

    TMLGC Senior Member
    Messages: 227

    Thanks and I hope your correct! Almost all models are saying above average precip, yet some are saying it will be rain not snow.
     
  18. Mark Oomkes

    Mark Oomkes PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 10,903

    Go hit an elk.
     
  19. hellion

    hellion Member
    Messages: 52

    Politician
     
  20. BUFF

    BUFF PlowSite Fanatic
    from FR NoCo
    Messages: 7,315

    It's bound to happen....... Then it's going to the freezer.