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Winter 2013-14

Discussion in 'Weather' started by FISHERBOY, Aug 23, 2013.

  1. FISHERBOY

    FISHERBOY Senior Member
    Messages: 542

    Well its that time of year again when we all start to think about winter. I'm not here to say its going to be a block buster winter. What I can share with all of you is current observations
    1.First lets start with the sun recently our sun has flipped poles, its normal, but one thing that has solar physicist very concerned is how sun spot activity has died off.:eek: There is direct correlation between low sun spots cold and snowy winters. Low solar activity allows the earth to build of O-3 or ozone in our ionosphere and stratosphere, and promotes high latitude blocking, and stratosphere warming events in the northern latitudes, when the stratosphere warms it expands pressing down on the troposphere which is where we live, so when the troposphere contracts you have cooling.
    2 El nino/la nina, mostly likely were going to see a weak el nino
    3.The PDO has popped warm which help promote a trough around Aleutian islands, a ridge on the west coast, and a trough on the east coast
    4.Snow growth in the arctic and siberia is above normal already
    5. Covection around the date line , without it forget about any winters storms, everyone should read Northeast Snowstorms.
    6.Now this is very important anyone who puts out a winter forecast now is feeding you a line of B.S, wave lengths with our jet stream are so different in August than in the winter, I urge caution as we head into winter, it all depends on where the height anomalies set up , do they set up over north American,? europe? asia,? we just don't know yet.?????
     
  2. grandview

    grandview PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 14,609

    Everyone knows,just to look at a squirrels tail.if its' bushy its going to be a cold winter,or check your wife out.:)
     
  3. peteo1

    peteo1 PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,660

    Caterpillars are a giveaway as well. More black = a tougher winter.
     
  4. Plow horse

    Plow horse Senior Member
    Messages: 116

    Bees nest

    I have been told that if big paper balls hornet nest are up high in a tree lots of SNOW, down low no snow. I have seen just one this year which is very odd, BUT it was up REAL High. Lets hope for snow.
     
  5. SnowClear

    SnowClear Senior Member
    Messages: 106

    Sounds like we're on the verge of another "Little Ice Age?"

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
     
  6. Young Pup

    Young Pup PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 5,492

  7. Dogplow Dodge

    Dogplow Dodge PlowSite Veteran
    from NJ
    Messages: 3,023

    You're all nuts...

    Oak tree nuts... (aka acorns)..

    I have a line of Eastern White Oak trees behind my home that are in the 70-80 year old range. Usually..... but not always.... when we get a MAJOR NUT FALL where the backyard gets covered in these acorns, the winter is usually a very productive one.... snow wise. It also means my dogs cannot go outside by themselves, as they try to gorge themselves on the acorns. One doctor visit and a pumping of a dog's stomach was enough for me...


    So far this year, no nuts are a falling, so that means we're getting another mild winter.....

    or I guess that jock strap I put on the tree is really working..:dizzy:
     
  8. NickT

    NickT Senior Member
    Messages: 707

    Squirrels and nuts ..... Is this plowsite????? Lol
     
  9. basher

    basher PlowSite Fanatic
    from 19707
    Messages: 8,993

    The Maunder Minimum was a LONG period of flat sunspot activity, this period has really only started in the last 18 months. But the patterns are remarkably similar.

    The earth has changed a little in the last 300 years, particularly the last 100 with the industrial and nuclear age.

    One occurrence does not a pattern make.

    It does however coincide with the screams of global warming which like all government programs means the opposite as global warming should lead to the next ice age:laughing:.
     
  10. grandview

    grandview PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 14,609


    you heard that on Modern Marvels,or the Day After Tomorrow movie!:D
     
  11. basher

    basher PlowSite Fanatic
    from 19707
    Messages: 8,993

    :nono::nono:
     
  12. grandview

    grandview PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 14,609

    Don't forget the Spörer Minimum too. But with global warming cause the ice pack to melt will in the future cause the next ice age. And with colder temps and more snow, species will start to die off starting with Dodges with Curtis plows.:laughing:
     
  13. basher

    basher PlowSite Fanatic
    from 19707
    Messages: 8,993


    HELLO BEN:laughing::laughing:

    But really the Spörer Minimum doesn't support a pattern. There was what, 100/150 years between them? What do they really know?

    Much of that data is speculation based on computers model. The US is working with at most 120 years of National (and less global, though some areas have mulch more) data complied by the National Weather Service, not the most the most accurate of sources. There are monks in F(*&ing Cuba that have 500 years or better of hurricane studies they won't even consider>:gunsfiring: The Monks warned of the Galveston Hurricane (1901) but the NWS ignored it and 1000s died.

    But I digress; my point being that IMO there is not enough actual data on the Sun, Earth and it's climatic changes to believe these signs ARE ushering in the next ice age, but just like God, alien life forms and the perfect woman I realize I'm to stupid to say for sure they don't exist.
     
  14. grandview

    grandview PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 14,609

    There could be a problem of not looking out far enough. Earth being in the Orion–Cygnus Arm has moved to different part so gravity will be pulling it from a different direction,so weather patterns will charge as it moves.
     
  15. NickT

    NickT Senior Member
    Messages: 707

    I hope you guys have boots on because there is some world class, presidential, BS being slung around in this thread..... Yet I find myself completely entertained!!!!
     
  16. basher

    basher PlowSite Fanatic
    from 19707
    Messages: 8,993

    Interesting, IMO if you try to extend Newtonian gravity to the whole universe, it doesn't work, because the sum of the potential due to every galaxy in the universe is of order 1 and the Newtonian approximation is not valid. However Mach's principle suggests that the larger the mass the greater the gravitational pull though the effects of motion are diminished (why we are not aware of the speed we are traveling as the earth spins.) However few believe Mach's principle was developed into a quantitative physical theory that would explain how the stars (of which our sun is one) can have such an effect.

    It's an interesting time weather wise, the Sun has changed polarity, and we are leaving one of the closest rotations of the sun for generations (part of your shift in the local bubble.) Wonder what Mother nature has in store for us next?
     
  17. SnowClear

    SnowClear Senior Member
    Messages: 106

    Well, there is the fact that sun spot data has been compiled by astronomers since the 1600's... I made my comment about a "Little Ice Age" out of coincidence of circumstances. You're right that this might be happenstance and not indicative or a long-term pattern. Regarding your statement of facts and data though. I've read several of the many research papers that purport climate change is occurring and the findings have significance (statistical significance).

    Did you hear that the Farmer's Almanac is calling for a bitterly cold winter! Weather prediction based upon sun spot activity at its finest.:confused:
     
  18. basher

    basher PlowSite Fanatic
    from 19707
    Messages: 8,993

    Yes I did and they are probably right in there as far as long term predictions goes, they are about 80% accurate over their history with IMO coincides with me, the TV weather and outperforms the NWS. I can show you winters where you would think they controlled the weather (mid Atlantic 94/95) they were so accurate and others where not so mulch.
     
  19. SnowClear

    SnowClear Senior Member
    Messages: 106

    Here's what I've gathered from our discourse. You're a snow professional, an astronomer, a meteorologist, a farmer's almanac subscriber, and a historian. Nice combination.

    P.s., Even though the academic community places next to no value on their predictions or claims of weather predicting precision, I rather enjoy reading the farmer's almanac.
     
  20. basher

    basher PlowSite Fanatic
    from 19707
    Messages: 8,993

    :blush2:I like the Alminacs and surely don't dismiss them. That's as foolish as some of Kepler's concepts about the sun.:D