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weatherman suck, straight up

Discussion in 'Commercial Snow Removal' started by fastrunner2, Jan 10, 2003.

  1. fastrunner2

    fastrunner2 Junior Member
    from ILL
    Messages: 15

    our local weatherman has been ranting and raving about 10-15" inches of lake effect snow all week.. It was supposed to start last night and continue today... We were supposed to get 3-4" last night and then 6-8" today.. I wake up this morning to see a dusting on the ground!!! And now its 10 am. and nothing on the radar coming my way!!! i should be my own weather man... Its common sense that we are not going to get any snow with a west wind in my area. It has to be northwest to north to get any lake effect snow.. are weathermen that dumb? It pisses me off cause yesterday i prepared all day for this "BIG EVENT" and now its nothing!!. I just want to scream! This is what has been working for me lately.. when the weatherman calls for clear skies, expect snow,, and when he calls for snow, i know i can sleep in!
  2. OffRoadPlow

    OffRoadPlow Senior Member
    Messages: 247

    Don't kick yourself too hard, I do this all the time. :D At least you will be ready for when they are right, if ever.... I thought it was bad when I was doing this, but this year, until the last 2 dustings, they were more than 2x under the amount we did get... I actually think that being over preped, is much better than being under... GOT TO LOVE MICHIGAN...

    Yes we have 4 seasons, they can change by the hour though...
  3. John from OH

    John from OH Member
    Messages: 35

    Welcome to one of the biggest headaches of snow plowing. I am on the fringe of one of the snow belts and the local news forecast have to cover wide areas, not just local ones. The forecasters in the Cleveland market all try to out do each other with their dire and often wrong predictions. Most of it is typical media hype. The more snow, the more viewers, the more they can charge for advertising. It doesn't take much to learn to read weather maps. You can also track snow my using one of the on-line radar sites. Print out the map hourly and compare, you will see how the storm is moving and how much precipitation in falling with reasonable accuracy. We use a 'Rule of Tens' for TV forecasts. 9 out of 10 forecast will be wrong. 9 out of 10 times, the snowfall will be 10% of what is forecast, ie, a 3"-6" snowfall prediction will 9 out of 10 times amount to .3"-.6" of actual snow. 10% of the time, the rule works the other way, ie, a 1"-3" prediction will produce 10" of snow. lol

    In all fairness, predicting weather is at best an educated guess and Mother Nature is still in control.
  4. firemedic680

    firemedic680 Member
    from BG Ohio
    Messages: 49

    Have you guys heard of John Dee? He is in the UP , seems to have pretty accurate forcasts. His website ( www.jonhdee.com) is one of the best i have found. The forcast graphic sums it up very quickly. I have become quite a follwer of this guy and his adventures he puts in his journal. check it out if ya get a chance , it gets a thumbs up from me.
  5. Kent Lawns

    Kent Lawns PlowSite.com Veteran
    Messages: 315

    When you aquire your forecasts from those who sell advertising, what do you expect?

    PAY for a service and END your frustration.
  6. OffRoadPlow

    OffRoadPlow Senior Member
    Messages: 247

    And Welcome John from OH.... Nice to know most of us have this issue, I don't know if it's changed much but have the "Paid" forcasts become better? I know years ago, my boss at the time paid for weather, he told me it just gave him someone to bit%& at when they were wrong. Also, who do you use?

    Thanks, Sorry to ask a question on a post that is not mine, just looking for answers...
  7. greenquestlawn

    greenquestlawn Senior Member
    Messages: 157

    Not sure where you guys are but the forcast that I heard seems to be right on, Thing is West Michigan is very large and the forcast can be dramatically different 10 miles away. I had a storm once that dumped 10" on one of my accounts and 1.5" at the job on the opposite end of my route. It was a total of 9 miles away! I do believe "Accurate" forcasting of anything mother nature can throw at us is a myth. 10-20, even 100 miles is nothing to a storm. Or look at Earthquake, Volcano, Hurricane forcasting. they dont get it much better.

    Now I had thought I would recieve more snow but they said 2-4 for today and by this evening we will have 2" They said the heaviest band would be from Holland SW to around Kalamazoo and looking at the radar they are right.

    I realize forcasts are not very reliable but its been that way for a long time and I really dont think it can get much better.

    I think old mother nature is just spreading the snow around to those who did not get any last year. LOL
  8. SDlawndawg

    SDlawndawg Senior Member
    Messages: 139

    Fastrunner- I couldn't agree more.

    Local weather says we're gonna get hit with lake effect overnight and today. Well, where the he!! is it! I spent yesterday getting ready and hardly slept last night since I couldn't wait to push some snow. I wake up to 1". That's it. Luckily it has been blowing around so some of my acct's were drifted. Only six drives though.

    I always fall for the worthless lake effect forecast. The weather guys can't admit they're wrong. Sure there were a few isolated areas that got the predicted amounts but give me a break! The NWS posted a Lake Effect Advisory for my county. Whoa. Look out for that 1" of snow! Be advised!

    Greg Mcmaster (local weather guy) gave me his "exclusive" cell# so I could get weather info right from the source. I might have to give him a call and tell him what I think of his predictions. I better wait till I'm calm down. I'm a little angry!

    Hey Offroad- lets make a road trip to Boyne and get that snowmaker you were talking about!
  9. fastrunner2

    fastrunner2 Junior Member
    from ILL
    Messages: 15

    he admitted it!

    well, what we ended up getting out of the predicted 10-16" of heavy snow was about 1/2" at the most. And we wouldnt even of got that if it wasnt for a fluke cloud that decided pass through. So i had to watch the 5:00 news to see what the excuses were. He said that the winds shifted and that they blew to fast for lake effect!! i was pissed. Anyone ever have problems like this?
  10. Lawn Lad

    Lawn Lad Senior Member
    Messages: 407

    Same thing here - as already mentioned by John from Ohio (welcome to the board). Where in Cleveland area are you ?

    Yesterday morning big lake effect advisory, 1 to 2" forecast during the day with at least another 2 to 4", with more for the snow belt areas east of Cleveland, possibly up to 12". So I'm thinking, cool, we'll at least get 2 to 3" out of a 12" storm.

    Snow started blowing around at about 3 pm when I was getting ready to take a nap. Went out and salted. Snow was coming down and blowing. Had maybe 1" in places. Radar looked patchy, but they called for it. Went to bed at 7 pm with everyone coming in at midnight. We got out there this morning and found 1/2" (less snow than 8 hours earlier). So we cleaned up the slush and salted again. Done at 4 am. Local snow squalls started again and dusted our lots in places. And that was all Mother Nature had to offer. Went to bed at 4:30 am a little disappointed.

    You know when get cocky with a statement, for example, I haven't been pulled over for a speeding ticket in three years. We always knock on wood. Don't want to curse yourself, right. Well, how about reverse psychology on Mother Nature. I want to scorn Mother Nature so she feels a little retribution is in order - maybe this will get her to dump 6" tonight and show me that I better sit up and pay attention. That's it, I'm not knocking on wood anymore.
  11. Sno

    Sno Senior Member
    Messages: 320

    That's alright....

    I heard all week of the big one comming, weather men said it looked like Snow for a week straight.

    I took out radio adds thinking to hit the big one.

    We got 3" over two days, that was it.

    Lucky if I broke even... in fact I'm sure I lost money if you include everything.


    Recieved one new customer, a call in account with a 4" trigger... Didnt even get to plow them.

    Last edited: Jan 12, 2003