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WEATHER DEC 22-JAN 2- possible Significant snoWstorm for Plains DEC 28-29

Discussion in 'Weather' started by wxdavid, Dec 23, 2015.

  1. wxdavid

    wxdavid Junior Member
    Messages: 12

    As many of you probably already know, the long Christmas Holiday weekend of DEC 24-27 in the eastern third of the country is going to feature extremely warm temperatures for almost all areas. I first started talking about this exceptional warmth back on December 11, which is 12-16 days BEFORE the actual record and near record warm temperatures show up. Of course it is not always possible to make such accurate forecasts 2.5 weeks in advance


    On Wed DEC 22 there is going to be a severe weather threat for the Delta and the Deep South A massive trough in the jet stream which crashed into the West Coast a few days ago is continuing to expand and push into and across the Rockies. Over the next few days this massive trough (courtesy of the strong El Nino), will drive into the Plains and the upper Midwest. As it does so LOW pressure will develop in eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma. This LOW will track into the western Great Lakes by Wednesday night and bring about severe storms and a few Tornadoes . This image from SPC (Storms Prediction Center) shows a very impressive severe wx outbreak for Wednesday .

    SPC.jpg

    SUPER WARM XMAS LONG WEEKEND

    This image shows the current 500mb (Jet stream) map valid DEC 25 The massive push of energy down the West Coast of North America develops a deep and powerful trough over the entire western third of the country by Christmas day. The atmosphere which is always seeking to maintain its balance, tries to counter this trough by developing an equally strong RIDGE over the Southeast states. And in between these two prominent weather features, is the Plains region.

    1.jpg
    By the morning of December 26, the various weather models are showing the impact of these two powerful weather features on the overall weather pattern. We can see a very distinct and significant cold front running from eastern NM across northern TX, then up across central OK, eastern KS, across MO-IA State line, and then north of Chicago up towards Michigan. To the north of this front arctic HIGH pressure areas which will keep temperatures cold enough for significant snow across eastern COL and much of western and central NEB and into good portion of MN and northern WI.
    96.jpg


    But south of the front things will be vastly different with strong south winds and warm and humid conditions coming in from the Gulf of Mexico. There will be significant areas of sunshine which will help destabilize the atmosphere.


    As we come out of the holiday weekend significant LOW pressures is going to develop over New Mexico and western Texas on the 28th. This Image is from the European ensemble ( best weather model in the world) and shows strong LOW over northeast OK-- with a major snowstorm underway over Tx Panhandle western/ central OK and most of KS & NEB on DEC 28 and into SD nw IA much of MN and northern WI on DEC 29. Areas to the East and south of the Low (such as St Louis Chicago Indy Detroit) will see heavy rain & storms
    EPS168.jpg

    By December 30th, the big system over the Great Lakes will be up into Canada and changes in the weather pattern over Alaska and the Bering Sea will allow for a change in the pattern across North America. The weather models all show a fairly strong RIDGE developing over western Canada on the 30th and 31st. This will allow for a moderate sized trough to develop over the Midwest and the Northeast, as we move into the New Year.

    Temperatures look to be somewhat colder, but nothing that is in the least bit unusual for early January. In fact the best that can be said about this cold pattern which may last for several days in the first week of January... is that it will bring back seasonal temperatures but that's about it.

    ECMWF-EPS_500mbHgtanom_naexp_f216.jpg

    SPC.jpg

    ECMWF-EPS_500mbHgtanom_naexp_f216.jpg

    1.jpg

    96.jpg

    EPS168.jpg
     
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2015
  2. Mark Oomkes

    Mark Oomkes PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 10,868

    Pretty colours.
     
  3. BRL1

    BRL1 Senior Member
    from Wyoming
    Messages: 655

    Oooooo ahhhhhhh
     
  4. LapeerLandscape

    LapeerLandscape PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,611

    Looks like Rainbow exploded.

    In the second graph down what are the numbers/colors on the right side. I assume they are above and below normal temp but not sure.
     
  5. JMHConstruction

    JMHConstruction PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,072

    ....all rain here...
     
  6. BUFF

    BUFF PlowSite Fanatic
    from FR NoCo
    Messages: 7,284

    1-3" is what we're suppose to have Xmas day, same goes for Lander.
     
  7. Mark Oomkes

    Mark Oomkes PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 10,868

    Did you move to San Fran or Sausagetuck?
     
  8. wxdavid

    wxdavid Junior Member
    Messages: 12

    What do the prertty colors mean?

    THE RAIN SNOW LINE is the WHITE LINE

    scaleexpl.jpg

    scaleexpl.jpg
     
  9. SnoFarmer

    SnoFarmer PlowSite Fanatic
    from N,E. MN
    Messages: 8,556

  10. LapeerLandscape

    LapeerLandscape PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,611

    So those are plus or minus zero in Celsius at 1 mile up.
     
  11. LapeerLandscape

    LapeerLandscape PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,611

    Your closer to both of those clown towns then I am so take that... :drinkup: