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snow day

Discussion in 'Weather' started by 3311, Sep 16, 2009.

  1. 3311

    3311 Senior Member
    Messages: 332

    Snow-Day.org Articles
    Written by Craig McPeck


    Exclusive articles and research written by Craig McPeck will be stored inside here.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Re Curving Hurricanes Away from the US Coastlines and what it means for winter

    By Craig McPeck



    The 2009 Hurricane Season, is too be remembered a very quiet season which had very few powerful hurricanes. However, the current season is not over, it is easy to assume that with the amount of shear and jet stream tracks, that the current Hurricane season will not progress to be as strong as forecasted as past years.



    All seven of the named Tropical Cyclones; Danny, Claudette, Tropical Depression One, Erika, Bill , Ana, with the exception of the current active tropical cyclone, Fred; have nearly curved away from any of the United States coastlines out to sea. At least 6 out of the 7 named tropical cyclones for the 2009 Hurricane Season.







    Now you are probably wondering, whats the big deal about this, its great that they are missing the United States, and yes it is great. Recurving Tropical Cyclones have a significant importance on the winter in the United States. It has been known, to past occurences of 12 or more re curving Tropical Cyclones that wetter then normal conditions were present across portions of the Northeastern, Ohio Valley and portions of the Midwestern United States during the winter months. With the Southeast and Southwestern United States staying pretty dry. With five or less re curving tropical cyclones, the above is usually the opposite. Take a look at the chart below regarding the above subject;
     
  2. JohnnyRoyale

    JohnnyRoyale 2000 Club Member
    Messages: 2,935

    Dont see a chart.
     
  3. trycyber

    trycyber Junior Member
    Messages: 24

    Well Thats depressing.
     
  4. swtiih

    swtiih PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,179

  5. 2COR517

    2COR517 PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 7,115

    Wetter than normal across the Northeast sounds good to me.
     
  6. Mark Oomkes

    Mark Oomkes PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 10,853

    This is just BS, overall, the last 2 years have been pretty quiet and we've been hammered with snow the last 2 seasons.
     
  7. 2COR517

    2COR517 PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 7,115

    Why do you have to rub it in how mulch snow you had last year?
     
  8. Mark Oomkes

    Mark Oomkes PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 10,853

    Because it's sooooooooo mulch fun!!!!!
     
  9. cretebaby

    cretebaby PlowSite Veteran
    Messages: 4,162

    I think there is a pretty good chance that MarkO is just as mulch of a tard as the rest of us. xysport
     
  10. tls22

    tls22 PlowSite Veteran
    Messages: 4,263

    Oh boy!:bluebounc I live in the northeast, i better get a bigger truck.:p
     
  11. hydro_37

    hydro_37 PlowSite Veteran
    from iowa
    Messages: 3,790

    I am still waiting for Timmy to give us his prediction....especially for here.
     
  12. Clapper&Company

    Clapper&Company PlowSite Veteran
    from NE OHIO
    Messages: 4,413

    I better buy another S-10 if im plowing both walmarts this year then :D
     
  13. tls22

    tls22 PlowSite Veteran
    Messages: 4,263

    Prob by mid-late october Tim....i want to see what this el-nino does first
     
  14. hydro_37

    hydro_37 PlowSite Veteran
    from iowa
    Messages: 3,790

    Crap...I sure as hell hope not that soon,
    We will still be taking boat docks out of the Lake.
    2nd week of Nov and I would be happy.:redbounce
     
  15. Mark Oomkes

    Mark Oomkes PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 10,853

    You mean the el Nino that is a whopping 1/10 of a degree higher than normal?
     
  16. tls22

    tls22 PlowSite Veteran
    Messages: 4,263

    LOL...no i ment my forcast for winter...not ur first snow....I think you have a good shot at a late november storm this winter...we shall see what happens.:drinkup:



    I really dont know where you get ur information from...since when do they rate El nino's off normal bases? They are classified as weak,moderate, and strong. You sound like a person that does not really buy into a nino effecting the pattern that much,i could see why you feel that way. You live next to a big body of water that is prob going to give you more then half your seasonal snowfall every winter. 97-98 that el nino was so strong pretty much everyone torch all winter long.......it effected the pattern down stream so much, it f'ed us all. Our last el nino...which was moderate was in 2006-2007....a very back loaded winter. After a early season snowstorm in the mid west......December was crap......after the turn of the year things started to pick up. As of right now you can see the upper midwest has been warmer then avg for the last few weeks....i believe Duluth is plus 8 for the month...and the cold departures are down south where then been getting all the rain with the cut-off low. If this was January the pattern would suck for cold/snow...we all would be torching. I think the nino will peak weak +0.9 to +1.0 ONI .....sometime in djf.......and if we get the plus PDO its going to be a great winter. I rather get this crappy pattern and warmer then avg weather out of the way now.

    We got into this discussion last winter........im pretty sure everyone had a pretty good winter. Although it did end abruptly for you guys in the midwest, after a banner december and january. Oh and btw that guy from CT that was posting off the wall things, pretty much busted on everything he said last year.
     
  17. tls22

    tls22 PlowSite Veteran
    Messages: 4,263

    As we enter early October......you can see what reliable long term modeling is suggesting here..This is a classic weak El Nino signature and should be prevalent (if we're lucky) throughout this winter......... +PNA PAC driven pattern with troughing over the Eastern US. You also can note that warmer animolies in the upper mid-west.

    oomokes.png
     
  18. tls22

    tls22 PlowSite Veteran
    Messages: 4,263

    Much of the mid-west has been above normal this month...look at MINN 8-10 above normal

    pretty dry also. This is a typical weak El Nino signature. If everything goes according to plan you'll see those anomalies start to shift even further to the west and northwest

    new1.png

    rain.png
     
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2009
  19. hydro_37

    hydro_37 PlowSite Veteran
    from iowa
    Messages: 3,790

    Our summer was very wet and cold. Now we are getting warm weather but no rain.
    Perfect fall weather....actually it has been more like summer weather the last 3 weeks.
     
  20. 2COR517

    2COR517 PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 7,115

    Exact same here