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Six weeks of winter

Discussion in 'Weather' started by FISHERBOY, Jan 21, 2010.

  1. FISHERBOY

    FISHERBOY Senior Member
    Messages: 542

    . I didn't post all of it but just the good parts:waving:

    The weather typically goes in cycles, some short, some long. One of those cycles can last a good six weeks, such as the cold period from start of December into the second week of January. We're clearly in a lull now, but one that will probably have a run about half as long, or about three weeks, bringing us to the beginning of February. And in looking at all of the various charts and models and observations over the past 24 hours, it appears as if that's about the time the pattern should turn colder for most of the country.

    There will be a couple of stabs of cold before then, but nothing that looks like it has true staying power, but once to Groundhog Day and beyond, the likelihood for more sustainable cold is growing. And if we apply the theory a broad-scale pattern tends to last as long as six weeks, then we'd be looking at a period of cold and probably storminess that would last to near the vernal equinox.

    Of course, much of this could be nothing more than smoke and mirrors, and we're talking about the 'forecasts' of a groundhog that has the forecast written down on a scroll and proclaimed from his hooch before there can even be a shadow - before sunrise! But sometimes common sense has to take a leave of absence for lore, kind of like the thinking fans have of sitting in the same place or wearing the same clothes before their teams' games so as to exert a positive influence on the games outcome in their favor! But I digress!

    What I see before me is two distinct surges of very warm air. The first one is occurring now across the South into the Southeast. It has led to an outbreak of severe thunderstorms with some tornadoes over the past 24 hours from parts of the Red River Valley and northeastern Texas all the way to the Florida Panhandle and Georgia.

    The second thrust of warmth will be more directed up the East Coast late Sunday and Sunday night into Monday. It'll be another one of those surges that will send temperatures to their highest point of the day just before the stroke of midnight Sunday night, and where some places will have their highest temperatures for Monday before sunrise, or not long thereafter, even in the absence of sunshine. Don't be surprised if it rockets to 60 over parts of the mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England in this surge!

    What follows this late weekend storm will be a push of colder air down the Plains. Certainly it will be noticeably cooler across the South to open up next week as temperatures are pushed back to near normal. However, across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, the air will have more of an arctic flavor to it. As that bleeds southeastward next week, it will contribute to some snow showers and flurries around the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley up to the spine of the Appalachians, though the colder air won't have as much of an impact on areas downwind of the mountains - colder, yes, but not any worse than normal for late January.

    There's still a couple of additional systems to go for California next week after a nice break Friday night through Saturday night. The next one will bring into the state Sunday and Sunday night then try to roll inland early next week. With colder air draped across the northern tier of states, and a storm likely to roll across the country, one would think there has to be some snow out of this, especially north of I-70, say. Details and specifics are hard to nail down at this point, but it will be the next step in the process of sending temperatures back below normal for a large part of the country as that furry animal exits his hooch to make his infamous proclamation.


    From: Joe Lundberg Accu-weather.com