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Pa Winter Weather Discussion 2012-13

Discussion in 'Weather' started by FISHERBOY, Sep 17, 2012.


    FISHERBOY Senior Member
    Messages: 542

    Lets hear from all the guys around Pa
    Right now there is a el nino slowly coming on, thats only a small part of this winters puzzle, we hav a negative PDO(google that), and warm AMO, with the warm AMO thats why there has been alot lot of ice melting in the arctic.
    What most of your local weather men wouldn't tell you is this, every el nino is different, there are not all blow torch warm:eek:
    When the water warms right off of the west coast of south america, thats a bad sign for the winter, 97-98:cry: Currently this el nino looks to be central based, a central based el nino with a negative PDO, and warm AMO, could bring all of us a chance of having a good, to great winter payup.
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2012
  2. grandview

    grandview PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 14,609

    How about right now? You getting rain that we'll be getting tomorrow morning?

    FISHERBOY Senior Member
    Messages: 542

    yes about 1-3 inches of rain
  4. Wilnip

    Wilnip Senior Member
    Messages: 583

    It's all a guessing game at this point. 10 day forecasts are never accurate let alone 4 months from now.
  5. Nutz4Plowing

    Nutz4Plowing Member
    Messages: 30

    Have it both ways...

    I have myself set up for 60% seasonal and 40% per push so it almost doesnt really matter I'll be busy counting money or spending it on salt and part/maintenance..
    Just want a easy to manage winter, no < 8 inch is good for me.

    FISHERBOY Senior Member
    Messages: 542


    Long range forecasting is very tough, and certainly not a guess, there are trends in the atomsphere that are a road map in any season.
  7. Wilnip

    Wilnip Senior Member
    Messages: 583

    I understand that. And i didn't mean it to be sarcastic. Meteorologists have a tough job. I simply meant its a little to far off to get excited. Although I have been getting ready for a few weeks now. Infact I ordered tires for one truck today and the other is getting a spreader installed tomorrow. Tires for it to follow. :)
  8. basher

    basher PlowSite Fanatic
    from 19707
    Messages: 8,990

    You forget about the sunspots.

    There is a lack of sunspot activity right now and that leads to cooler temperatures. If you look at the history of sunspots the worst winters are those with relatively little or no sunspot activity. The best example of this is the Maunder Minimum. The period from 1650-1725 (approx.) also known as the little ice age. For a excellent explanation as to the hows and whys of forecasting this particular winter check out Snow-day.org for Craig's first winter prognostication.


    and yes if the NAO/AO doesn't go negative we could be in for a repeat of last year.

    an excerpt from Snowday's winter 12/13 forecast

    One thing I am worried about is if the NAO/AO stay negative through the winter time or if they go back to where they were last winter and the entire winter just changes once again, but I have enough evidence that the current pattern is going to take us into a much more snowier and colder winter for folks!

    FISHERBOY Senior Member
    Messages: 542

    Yes the sun also plays a big part. Getting bac to the NAO, its was negative just about all summer, but in summer time u get a different signal of course haha. Snowday did put out a good forecast.
    Snow cover in western Canada is also a player in any winter, the more snow in western canada, the stronger the cold air masses will be, currently snow cover is close to normal in that area.
  10. dunlaps lawncare

    dunlaps lawncare Senior Member
    Messages: 111

    all a guessing game at this point
  11. rob guarino

    rob guarino Member
    from AZ
    Messages: 68

    [​IMG]Hey All

    Check out our blogs, we are weighting the variables for PA this and have won a bunch of awards for our snow accuracy in PA over the years.


    --Meteorologist Rob Guarino

    FISHERBOY Senior Member
    Messages: 542


    There's a chance of snow for parts of western pa by later this weekend or early next week:eek:
  13. Wilnip

    Wilnip Senior Member
    Messages: 583

    Looks like my plows and salter will be on this weekend. We may just get a nice little scrimmage. A nice light snow would be nice to get the bugs worked out.
  14. dunlaps lawncare

    dunlaps lawncare Senior Member
    Messages: 111

    trial run every fall would be nice
  15. Wilnip

    Wilnip Senior Member
    Messages: 583

    I heard the rumor from several people today that we could see the mother of all storms Monday. 40 inches. I have not been watching the news or weather reports. Someone fill me in...

    IDOCTORTREES Senior Member
    from MONTANA
    Messages: 789

    It has been snowing lightly here for 3 days..Sidewalks and deice, No real plowing yet.
  17. Wilnip

    Wilnip Senior Member
    Messages: 583

    Figured its time to wake this thread up. :waving: Looks like we will be getting some snow in the western half of the state. xysport Not sure if it will be plowable, but will probably get some salting in this week. 40mph gusts could make it interesting. Id really like to do a full run to see how my route needs tweaking and how the trucks perform (and the drivers).
  18. Spool it up

    Spool it up Senior Member
    Messages: 912

    dont look too promising here for at least 10 days out . But , one can never tell , especially a meteorologist .
  19. Wilnip

    Wilnip Senior Member
    Messages: 583

    Just saw this graphic on TWC. Maybe we will be scraping.

  20. peteo1

    peteo1 PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,658

    I saw the same thing. Keeping my fingers crossed but I'm not getting my hopes up. Although I will say this, since I have to go up to Cleveland this weekend it'll probably snow til Sunday. Oh well, at least it would be money in the pocketbook.