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NOAA Winter Outlook Just Released (take a look)

Discussion in 'Weather' started by rob guarino, Oct 18, 2012.

  1. rob guarino

    rob guarino Member
    from AZ
    Messages: 68

    Last edited: Oct 18, 2012
  2. GSS LLC

    GSS LLC Senior Member
    Messages: 639

    Soooo basically you're saying that you have no idea. Same forcast as the last 200 years. Ill stick to my weather rock.
     
  3. John143

    John143 Senior Member
    from NEPA PA
    Messages: 254

    2X :salute:
     
  4. peteo1

    peteo1 PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,659

    These are the same folks who can't tell you if its going to rain tomorrow but yet they want you to believe they can forecast 2-3 months out? Uh huh, sure.
     
  5. Charles

    Charles Moderator Staff Member
    Messages: 253

    I believe it is cooler than last year, but it is really dry. I hope that dry pattern doesn't stick around all winter. Just a sad forecast:cry: We didn't get much participation last winter. The Neutral pattern is still not as bad as La Nina but not by much!
     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2012
  6. dfd9

    dfd9 PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,475

    Why is El Nino in Siberia?

    My outlook for this winter is as follows:

    I will LOOK OUT my window, if snow is falling, appropriate measures will be taken. If I LOOK OUT my window and snow is not falling, appropriate measures will take place.

    I predict it will cool off, snow will fall. Dark nights and light days. It will also warm up. There will be rain. There will be drought. Around March-April, spring will come.

    I realize you guys are trying to make money and NOAA is trying to secure funding, but after last winter's clusterfoxtrot, why don't you just man up and say what I said above?

    You have no idea. Only God knows. Guessing will only end in ticking your customers off.
     
  7. 1olddogtwo

    1olddogtwo PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 11,518

    That's how I roll. We all knew last year when the blew up the forecast that we were all ******. Yes there is history to guess at and that's just it a guess We need to stop all this wish/guess forecasting and worry about the next 24/48 hours.

    I'm far from being a weather guy but I'm more accuate then most of these guys.
     
  8. dfd9

    dfd9 PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,475

    Agreed.

    One of the local guys did an assessment of hot, dry summers and the winters that followed. History showed just about an exact 50/50 split between warmer\lighter winters and colder\heavier winters.

    Any attempt to even use history is an uneducated guess. To use the term phenemona for El and La is even stupid. It happens, frequently, with little effect on winter weather. If we can have anywhere from 50-104" in La Nina, that tells me it does not affect winter weather patterns as these guys would lead us to believe.

    So, I wish these guys the best, but take no stock in what they say. If they can tell us who will be in the Super Bowl and what the score will be and be accurate, then we can start following their weather predictions.
     
  9. BPS#1

    BPS#1 2000 Club Member
    Messages: 2,407

    So no El Nino or La Nina?????????????


    That means we are in for LA NADA.
     
  10. unit28

    unit28 PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 6,532

    Aside from having 14 inches of snow in Badger MN on the 4th
    October 2011 avg high 62*
    October 2012 avg high 58*

    I'm usually wearing a decent coat, hat and gloves and getting mix precip
    while doing fall clean ups.

    I feel like I'm back home in TX with this weather .
    except instead of them getting cooler... they're still averaging 85* highs.
    hmmmm.
     
  11. rob guarino

    rob guarino Member
    from AZ
    Messages: 68

    I gave the NOAA forecast. We have had the same outlook since June and we are not changing a thing. Check us out and we'll see how the winter plays out.

    www.liveweatherblogs.com