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Next up - major snwostorm threat for east coast jan 10-11

Discussion in 'Weather' started by wxdavid, Dec 31, 2015.

  1. wxdavid

    wxdavid Junior Member
    Messages: 12

    ** ALERT ** SNOWSTORM THREAT FOR EAST COAST -- from western NC into all of VA WVA MD DEL central/ eastern PA central eastern NY all of NJ CT into all of New England

    I have been talking about this THREAT here and over on the website ...since December 28 and the model data this morning is quite strong that the first significant East Coast winter storm is going to develop January 11-12. We can say this with some confidence because the overall strong signals been given off by the atmospheric patterns on the weather models JAN 2 to JAN 15.

    When all the four important atmospheric pattern indices or what we call
    Teleonnections are this strong ...it becomes easier to forecast significant winter storms and the weather models do a better job of detecting them especially beyond five are six days.

    Keep in mind and not forecasting a specific temperature for specific location 6 days some now or 10 days some now. That sort of specific temperature forecasting is really not possible with any sort a reliability even though it's very popular to see the such temperatures on your smart phone weather Apps or on the various websites.

    ECM_00_enUS_P850TS_0276.png


    ECM_00_enUS_P850TS_0282.png






    All that being said let's be clear. We are NOT yet forecasting East Coast winter storm for January 11 - 12. What we are saying is that the potential is very high because the atmospheric patterns / teleconnections are very strong and closely match the atmospheric of patterns that existed when we had other major East Coast winter storms.

    Of course it is reasonable to be somewhat skeptical as this is still 10 days away, But there are meteorologists that do study these patterns and do research on them ( I am one of them). Over the past 20 years in fact there been several important books and research papers and monographs on significant East Coast winter storms.

    I know this kind of forecast is not going to show up on those silly weather smart phones Apps . And I know similar forecasts are not going to show up on TWC or Accuweather or some other website that you might go to. What we are talking here is cutting edge meteorology - it is what I do.

    There are still of course a number of different possibilities here. This could be a snow to rain event on the coast and more snow inland and over the mountains ...OR this could be a mostly coastal event with the heaviest precipitation on the coastal areas. It is also possible that the main event might slide off the coast ...although I doubt that based on that I am seeing right now

    Behind this Low is major league arctic outbreak

    blast.jpg

    ECM_00_enUS_P850TS_0276.png

    ECM_00_enUS_P850TS_0282.png

    blast.jpg
     
  2. Randall Ave

    Randall Ave 2000 Club Member
    Messages: 2,049

    OK i'm hooked! :nod:
     
  3. iceyman

    iceyman 2000 Club Member
    Messages: 2,547

    You certainly know how to get this board going
     
  4. MajorDave

    MajorDave Senior Member
    Messages: 949

    Like bringing booze to an AA Meeting!!!
     
  5. Randall Ave

    Randall Ave 2000 Club Member
    Messages: 2,049

    Heeey, I'll take another. Drink, and storm.
     
  6. iceyman

    iceyman 2000 Club Member
    Messages: 2,547

    Rumor has it your calling for a Benchmark storm eh
     
  7. MajorDave

    MajorDave Senior Member
    Messages: 949

    As long as it pounds NYC - I'll drink to that!
     
  8. LwnmwrMan22

    LwnmwrMan22 PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 28,003

    Are these the same forecast models that you came into the Minnesota weather thread with, ***BREAKING BREAKING LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOWING 18+" about 12 hours (not days) before the snow was supposed to hit?

    The storm where the majority of my service area ended up with less than an inch? Where I had one other driver beside myself out of 7 working?

    :popcorn: :rolleyes:
     
  9. FordFisherman

    FordFisherman PlowSite.com Addict
    from 06611
    Messages: 1,594

    Hows that Rihanna song go? Under my umbrella ella ella hey hey...
     
  10. pldann86

    pldann86 Member
    from LI NY
    Messages: 66



    DT is that you? https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk
     
  11. JMHConstruction

    JMHConstruction PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,086

    I think your models are a little on the extreme side. We did get a storm after your last weather thread, but not even close to what you indicated.
     
  12. 1olddogtwo

    1olddogtwo PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 11,552

    Their has been more then a few of these guys over the years here on PS.

    I don't give much hope nor pay to much attention to them. It's all about the hype and ego-stoking for the most part.

    I'll give him the benefit of being a stand up guy, or try anyways.
     
  13. basher

    basher PlowSite Fanatic
    from 19707
    Messages: 8,993

    I think the kicker is right here.

    We are NOT yet forecasting East Coast winter storm for January 11 - 12. What we are saying is that the potential is very high because the atmospheric patterns / teleconnections are very strong and closely match the atmospheric of patterns that existed when we had other major East Coast winter storms.
     
  14. BUFF

    BUFF PlowSite Fanatic
    from FR NoCo
    Messages: 7,320

    I use a weather rock, it's never wrong......

    wrock.jpg
     
  15. TheXpress2002

    TheXpress2002 2000 Club Member
    from Canton
    Messages: 2,680

    It will be an app runner.
     
  16. AccuCon

    AccuCon Senior Member
    from CT
    Messages: 463

    No there is definitely something coming...It really depends on the temps what that something is...I was checking the 18zGFS and the precipitation will def. be over the North East...Whether it falls as snow, rain, sleet, or a mix is going to depend on the temperatures...
     
  17. 1olddogtwo

    1olddogtwo PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 11,552

    Really....temps you say, interesting.
     
  18. AccuCon

    AccuCon Senior Member
    from CT
    Messages: 463

    I know....But more in how the cold settles in and the NAO going negative...Plus with the increased snow pack in Canada we may see the cold air stay and in that case we could be in for something...

    It looks like the coming weekend and next week will be a very active one in regards to the weather...
     
  19. Snow Commandor

    Snow Commandor Senior Member
    from 07666
    Messages: 439

    Weird wild stuff, I did not know what!
     
  20. FordFisherman

    FordFisherman PlowSite.com Addict
    from 06611
    Messages: 1,594

    under my um ber ella ella ella hey hey hey :D
    this sucks