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NE Jersey/ SE NY

Discussion in 'Weather' started by JPMAKO, Jan 29, 2008.

  1. JPMAKO

    JPMAKO Senior Member
    Messages: 660

    Since these are the primary area's that I cover and I am bored as hell with the lack of Snow, I thought I would start posting some predictions for what is left of this winter season!
    If you look at the maps below you can distinguish precip intensity by using the color chart on the left hand side. Look for the 0 line which is blue and that will give a pretty good location of the freezing line. If it is below freezing in your area you can take the precip amount and multiply by 10 to get a general frozen precip forecast using 10:1 snow ratios.

    For the next storm which is to take place around Friday- Saturday of this week we will see mostly rain/freezing rain but the forecast models are hinting at a secondary low developing which could bring some ice accumulations to the area on the backside of the storm unfortunately it will most likely happen after the bulk of the precip is past us.:cry:


    There then will be another one passing by our area around next Tuesday.
    as of right now it looks like we will be dealing with the same thing - Rain again possibly some snow mixing in but accumulations will be minimal.

    The next shot at Snow looks to be around the 10th of February.
    If it all comes together well we could be looking at a major snow event like at least 6-10 inches.

    One other thing that we have going for us going into February is that the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is going negative.

    We should all do the snow dance and hope that something comes of at least one of these storms.

    That's it for now I will update periodically and post some snow maps...

    Jason

    gfs_pcp_sat.jpg

    gfs_pcp_tue.jpg

    gfs_pcp_sun.jpg
     
  2. tls22

    tls22 PlowSite Veteran
    Messages: 4,263

    nice weather discussion, i have a site for surface temps if your interested! Yeah the preciep on gfs occurs in 6 hr intervals, so that preciep might have fallen before we got below frz! The week of feb 10th looks like our best shot for snow! :gunsfiring:
     
  3. linycctitan

    linycctitan Senior Member
    Messages: 588

    I hope that you're right about Feb 10th, I guess we'll see if the landscaping plowguy turned weatherman is better than the "pro's"!!lol If you are, you're hired!!!
     
  4. mkwl

    mkwl 2000 Club Member
    Messages: 2,361

    I hope we really get nailed with that storm on the 10th! I'll take as much snow as we can get between now and the second week in March! After that, it's time for spring cleanups :dizzy: . Too bad January was a dead month!:realmad::cry:
     
  5. FISHERBOY

    FISHERBOY Senior Member
    Messages: 542

    We need snow

    First i like to say that was a great post, very informative, but the storm on the 10th has gone from GFS model it backed away from it :cry:. Thats from the mad man post today, but i hope it comes back for all of us. Also i heard on elliot abrams blog that the second half of february could be colder than average, of course it didn't menchion snow,
    I remember from Accu-weather winter outlook saying March was going to be bad for the northeast so will just hav to see. Plenty of winter left.payup

    P.S. Why aren't my smiles working on my computer i was wondering if anyone knows
     
  6. tls22

    tls22 PlowSite Veteran
    Messages: 4,263

    Yes i agree with that...the new gfs shows a few colds days at the end of next week! The storm is gone from the maps, and zonal flow seems to take over at months end! I will not give up yet, but if its not going to snow let the warm weather start! I want to get back to cutting and clean-ups:gunsfiring:
     
  7. JPMAKO

    JPMAKO Senior Member
    Messages: 660

    The first Storm that I posted about is going to take place Friday - Saturday as of right now one of the forecast models has moved the freezing line about 50 miles south.
    I still believe that this will be mostly a rain event with some frozen precip on the back end as cold air will move in at the end. We Might get lucky and have a couple of inches of snow and or sleet with this one on the back end. At the very least some salting:)

    Here is the lastest model run for the NAM the GFS comes out around 11:00 tonight I will make a Snow map tomorrow for this storm

    Saturday-NAM.jpg
     
  8. FISHERBOY

    FISHERBOY Senior Member
    Messages: 542

    Storm Is Back For The 10th

    The storm is back on the models for the 10 payup ,i hope it stays on and we get a good snow fall
     
  9. JeepPlow18

    JeepPlow18 Senior Member
    Messages: 658

    Thats the only hope we have in the next week and a half:cry:
     
  10. Quality SR

    Quality SR PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,828

    They said on the news today that this was the first snowless January in 75 years. :dizzy:
    Before that there was another one in 1850's. Hopefully these next 2 months are good.
     
  11. JeepPlow18

    JeepPlow18 Senior Member
    Messages: 658

    Yea we can only hope at this point.
     
  12. ManorLandscape8

    ManorLandscape8 Member
    Messages: 40

    to me you do just as good as a job as those dirtbag tv weathermen. We got some icing across the river in westchester county.
     
  13. JeepPlow18

    JeepPlow18 Senior Member
    Messages: 658

    Northern Sussex county has as much as an inch of ice all over everything. I got about a quarter of an inch still was hell with winds up to 30 M.P.H. Several trees started to snap luckily it got warmer and started to downpour.
     
  14. mkwl

    mkwl 2000 Club Member
    Messages: 2,361

    Storm on the 10th is gone- temps are supposed to be in the upper 40's and lower 50's as far as the forecast on accuweather goes- guess I'll start gearing up for spring cleanups.:cry:
     
  15. JeepPlow18

    JeepPlow18 Senior Member
    Messages: 658

    Yea I was just looking at that. I cant believe it, warm and rain for the next two weeks:cry: Lets count on the fact that accuweather is always wrong that far in advance, so it could go the other way, who knows we will just have to wait.
     
  16. JPMAKO

    JPMAKO Senior Member
    Messages: 660


    Matt,

    I am ready for SCU's although it would be nice to get some snow first.payup, I am going to go out next week and do some of my larger properties in hopes of making the SCU easier. At the very least it will make my guys happy since we have not worked in a while other than splitting firewood. Hopefully if we go blow off whatever has fallen in the last month or so we can then just use the JRCO rakes and vacuum these lawns up in the spring to make things go a little faster. I have some larger installs planned for late spring so it would be nice to finish clean-ups early.

    Jason
     
  17. mkwl

    mkwl 2000 Club Member
    Messages: 2,361

    Jason-

    Yeah, I'd really like to have at least one big (like 8-14") snowstorm before the season is over- can only hope!:nod:

    I was out on my lawn today, and some other lawns yesterday giving estimates for cleanups and they were WET! It'll have to REALLY dry out before I'd put any blowers or mowers out on them- supposed to rain for most of this week so I have a feeling it'll be a while until I start with cleanups- probably the first weekend in March if we don't get any more snow- we'll see.

    Matt
     
  18. JPMAKO

    JPMAKO Senior Member
    Messages: 660

    To all of you that have been following this thread I have two words - GEAR UP.
    I am going to go out on a limb here and am going to say that we will have at least two yes (2) Plowable events by the 16th of February. At this time it is too early to tell how significant they will be but I say by Friday of this week make sure everything is ready to Rock:nod:

    If I am wrong I will never post anything about the weather ever again:nono:
    If I am right I want $50 from everyone reading this.payup

    Jason
     
  19. mkwl

    mkwl 2000 Club Member
    Messages: 2,361

    Jason, I sure hope you're right! :D I haven't had the plow on my truck since well before Christmas (except to move it around my driveway- just for fun- reminiscing about the snow lol). I'm sure hoping we get nailed for hte rest of February and the very beginning of March! IDK about the $50 though LOL:rolleyes:

    Matt

    For everyone else- I agree- check over your stuff, make sure you're ready to plow- probability would say that we have a good chance of at least one more major snowfall before the season is over! Keep your fingers crossed!:nod:
     
  20. mulcahy mowing

    mulcahy mowing Senior Member
    Messages: 718

    Any chance of that getting this far north? se mass here