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How much snow is needed to meet yearly average?

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Mick, Jan 22, 2006.

  1. Mick

    Mick PlowSite.com Veteran
    from Maine
    Messages: 5,546

    So far, we've gotten 20.5" and have a yearly average of 77.9", leaving a deficit of 57.4". Given that there is 1"-3" predicted till the end of January, let's say 2". That leaves 55.4" needed to meet the average snowfall for the year. If we say that there is usually two snowfalls in Feb/Mar time period of 12" (there is) for a total of 24", that leaves 31.4". Now, if we say that an average snowfall is 4", that means (rounding up) there will be eight snowfalls for the rest of the year. Half will be more than 4" and half will be less. If your trigger is 4", then you will push two of those, plus the two 12"ers. Figure one more for if you have a 3" trigger. For a two month time period, that doesn't really seem like much, does it?

    But - don't forget the rain we've gotten if you're looking at how this will affect ground water level, as we do for those on private wells. If you consider the water to snow conversion rate of 1" rain = 10" snow, we are actually ahead of the yearly average.

    Or maybe I just have too much time on my hands because of LACK OF SNOW.
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2006
  2. PORTER 05

    PORTER 05 Senior Member
    Messages: 449

    ya but you cant really map everything out....its mother nature its different all of the time , theres really like no such thing as average...average to what the past 100 yrs that they have been keeping track, the earth has been exsisting for 4 billion yrs...( unless you are religious its been existing for only 5000 yrs ), i opt for 4 billion, so any-way if you think about it there really no suck thing as average...+ you have to figure in that we are really messing up the earth and theres global warming, so know that really mess's up averages... anyway our average here is 46 inches...weve only gotten 4..know somthing wrong there huh....:rolleyes:
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2006
  3. Mick

    Mick PlowSite.com Veteran
    from Maine
    Messages: 5,546

    This is average for the past 15 years of record-keeping by Weatherbase. While I agree that "averages" can be misleading, you have to have something to use to base decisions on. In business, you need to know if you're ahead or behind whatever you want to use as a measure. So, if you use the past as a prediction of the future, then you can make some assumptions as to potential income for purchases, equipment/personnel needs etc. Without the averages to use as a measure, you're just out there running around with your head up ----. You're bound to fail because you don't know how you're doing. You don't even know you're failing. If you believe the "global warming" hype, you could even factor that into your projections.

    So, now that you've gotten 4" out of 46", are you more inclined to give it up or make a bigger push for next winter, assuming it will "average out"?
     
  4. PORTER 05

    PORTER 05 Senior Member
    Messages: 449

    well thats tough, no by no means am i giving up my buisness,,,the whole average thing is tough , ive been plowing for 6 seasons, and every yr it hasnt been near to any other one....as far as this one gos, i dont now wat is going on, every storm that pulls up here is jioned wiht a south-east or south -west wind, which is "not normal" to the past seasons...this is why all of our storms are rain.,....the wind pulls up warm air and turns the system to rain...as far as globel warming gos, ya i do think this is happening, i dont now if it has anything to do wiht our weather we are having this season... most people would think so, i dont know im not a professional in that department.....though i do know alot about weather i dont know if globel warming is causing this weather...but for anyone out there, globel warming will actually make everything very cold about 20 yrs after it impacts us...this will result casue as the ice caps melt, fresh water will flow into the ocean , makeing the tides slow or neer stop, and this will stop the northern areas of getting warm water, resulting in massise freezing.,....
     
  5. yooper.mi

    yooper.mi Senior Member
    Messages: 154

    Have about 149" for the season need 100" more for the ten year average.
     
  6. LwnmwrMan22

    LwnmwrMan22 PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 27,961

    I base mine on average plowings, and so far I've plowed 6 times. Average for the year is 18. End of Jan is 1/2 through the contract.

    SOOOoooo... without going into great depth and ACTUALLY looking up the snowfalls in inches, I'd say we're behind, especially since the first 2-3 snowfalls were at or under 1".
     
  7. JTW

    JTW Senior Member
    Messages: 137

    What did you say? :dizzy:
     
  8. LwnmwrMan22

    LwnmwrMan22 PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 27,961

    We've gotten about 20" and season average is about 60", is what I was TRYING to say... ;)
     
  9. Mick

    Mick PlowSite.com Veteran
    from Maine
    Messages: 5,546

    correction to original post

    Where I said ..."you will push two of those, plus the two 12"ers" should have read "...four of those, plus the two 12"ers". Still, six pushes in two months doesn't seem like much, especially since Feb/Mar are our biggest months for snow.