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Elnino and global warming.....

Discussion in 'Weather' started by kysnowman, Jan 15, 2007.

  1. kysnowman

    kysnowman Member
    Messages: 62

    Nothing against alot of the posts about elnino and global warming being the cause of big chunk of the nation not getting snow. Personally I think it's a bunch of crap. Look at colorado getting all the snow. Global warming not hurting the snow plowers in colorado! I think it's some times you get snow and sometimes you don't. Everybody wanting to look for a reason why no snow. And most people in this forum turn to weather forecaster for there information. Weather forecasters are the biggest joke I've ever seen. I've only been plowing for four years so basically I'm a seasoned rookie! The last three years I've hung on the every word of local forecasters and the sound info of accuweather. (What a joke!) Unfortunately it's taking me three years to realize these sources of info are a bunch of s---! Unless the local forecasters are calling for snow 24 hours from now I dont pay any attention to them, as you know there wrong 9 out of 10 times.
    Sorry about the long post but I think alot of these guys on here need to quit taking to heart what these forecasters say!
     
  2. BPK63

    BPK63 Senior Member
    from CT
    Messages: 244

    Elnino and global warming are two different things. They are saying that this is not global warming and that it takes a long long time to happen if it were. Elnino is something they can predict and did long before this winter. It happens like every 5 years or something like that. As far as predicting the weather, yeah my local weather guys are always wrong 9 out of 10 times. They have screwed up many weekend plans by saying on Thursday it will rain Saturday only to see a nice sunny day when I get out of bed or vise versa.
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2007
  3. kysnowman

    kysnowman Member
    Messages: 62

    I understand they're two different things, everybody understands that, I'm just saying that those are the excuses people are giving for the lack of snow and I don't buy it. I don't think the elnino people thought there was going to be that much of a contrast in snow fall between the northeast where you live and the plains. That's why I don't believe for a second that's the reason for all the snow out in the plains and the lack of snow where you live. You can't predict that, and they'll probably get wrong tommorrows wheather. I here some guys on plowsite talk about how they keep hearing that the elnino is just getting started and will last till the spring. All the bull crap I've heard is that it's very weak and pretty much over. So what so called expert do you listen to. I know none of them!
     
  4. BPK63

    BPK63 Senior Member
    from CT
    Messages: 244

    Well, this is the weather discussion forum. That's why people are discussing the weather and forecasts :D
     
  5. Dakota2004

    Dakota2004 Senior Member
    Messages: 112

    Well I believe there is something with global warming, because right now and all weekend long its been raining and today is 01/15/07, and theres been nothing but a few flurries so far all winter. My thermometer says 40 degrees. I feel as if Ive moved to Florida with the weather we have now-a-days!
     
  6. kysnowman

    kysnowman Member
    Messages: 62

    There might be something to global warming. I'm not buying yet. I understand the winter is not what were use to seeing, but don't you think we've had these winters before. Maybe not recently! Here in Ky we average a whopping 15-16 inches of snow a year. We've had a trace. I just think we all go through winters like this! I am glad it's not over, so hopefully we all can put a little money in our pocket.
     
  7. mayhem

    mayhem PlowSite.com Addict
    from Peru MA
    Messages: 1,016

    True enough, but whats caused the shift in what we all consider to be normal, repetitive weather patterns? We usually get about 90" of snow a year here...thus far, less than an inch this season. I'm glad CO is getting snow, but to use that as evidence global warming doesn't exist seems silly...I think you're forgetting the word "global" is in there...the globe is alot bigger than Colorado.

    IMHO global warming is in fact happening, the pattern of the mean global temperatures rising seems pretty undeniable. The question is to what extent does humanity influence the speed of the warming pattern. I am of the opinion that we are in midst of a natural warming period and that our contribution of greenhouse gases and heat emissions is likely helping to accelerate a natural process. Will it lead to the demise of humanity, the melting of the polar ice caps and the flooding of 20% of the earth's surface? Probably not, but I see not compelling reason to not try to reduce the amount of crap we're putting into the atmosphere anyway. The global climate is an enourmously complex system...orders of magnitude more complex than I think our current weather science is equipped to fully grasp yet. Who the hell knows what effects different oddball inputs to the system will have across the globe? We've got glaciers disappearing, bird migratory patterns changing, cherry blossoms coming out in DC...record cold and snowfall in other palces. I don't think you can look at any one spot or region on the globe and use it to either prove or disprove global warming...its all connected together and you have to look at the whole system.

    What we're in the midst of right now is probably just a really weird winter weather pattern, possibly enhanced by global warming. Its happened before and it'll happen again.The main issue I think is that the jet stream hasn't made its usual fall/winter trough to bring cold air down to us from Canada...instead we're getting warm air coming up the coast from the south. We're past the midpoint of winter and almost through what is traditionally the coldest part of the year. I'm not at all sure we'll get any significant snowfall this season at all...we've had the precipitation, but the temparatures have been too high...in some cses 30 degrees too high. Unless we get that trough in the jet stream to bring some arctic air to the northeast, we're just going to keep seeing rain, wind and freezing rain.

    By the same token we've had winters go in the other direction too. October 4, 1987 we had locally one of the worst blizzards on record...something in the rangeg of 15-18" of snow IIRC, trees dropping like matchsticks all over from the weight of snow on their leaves, power out regionally for close to a week...the only time in my life I can remeber weather cancelling school for more than two consecutive days (77-78 was the only other multi-day cancellation in my memory). Just 3 years ago we had a 20" Nor-easters hit 4 days apart Christmas week...that year our regional snowfall was about 20" over the norm.

    You need a new source for your weather. I find locally our weather forecasts are pretty accurate, up to about 3-5 days. The temps might be off a few degrees, but its probably one day out of every couple years where we have situations that they call for rain and we have a sunny day...they're just not that incompetent anymore. I'd say our local weather is probably 9 out of 10 accurate or better.

    Interesting discussion guys...lets keep it going. No snow to plow or ski on so we might as well talk about the weather...
     
  8. kysnowman

    kysnowman Member
    Messages: 62

    I think global warming is fiction, I the earth goes through warm spells and cold spells. Take the Ice age for example, there had to be warmer weather before it. There you go the up and down pattern. (Actually the ice age stuff I don't know much about just theory!) You know where I was going with it anyway! And If global warming is true then it hasn't just started in the last few years it's been going on for decades. We've had some pretty big winters in the last ten years or so.
    The thing is you probably won't here anybody say a peep about global warming next year, as we all will probably get hammered by cold and snowy weather.payup
     
  9. gordyo

    gordyo Senior Member
    Messages: 527

    You all need to stop worrying. I have seen this pattern numerous times in 35 years of fighting snow. Some years are dry other years we get hammered and then some years are average. Nothing to worry about.
     
  10. kysnowman

    kysnowman Member
    Messages: 62

    gordyo that's what I've been trying to say. All this other nonsense doesn't have alot to do with it!
     
  11. Charles

    Charles Moderator Staff Member
    Messages: 256

    I showed the other day where the NOAA has come out and said they now believe it is a combination of global warming and El nino. Global warming has magnified the effects of El nino This is a fact--there are more warmer days on average than there are cooler ones nationwide. The trend for the past 20 years has been moving toward warming. I have noticed that around here too. The NOAA has been sticking with the Bush Administration party line until now. I wonder if somebody will be fired in the NOAA for going against the boss? Maybe the Bush approved the report?
    You will still get cold weather. Just more warm than cold periods
     
  12. RJ lindblom

    RJ lindblom Senior Member
    Messages: 346

    So Los Vegas and parts of New Mexico that otherwise don't see snow or Colorado getting pounded with snow is a result global warming?
     
  13. mayhem

    mayhem PlowSite.com Addict
    from Peru MA
    Messages: 1,016


    Could be...remeber its a planet-wide system and you have to look at it as a whole. Just because someplaces are getting colder than normal weather doesn't man the whole planet isn't slightly warmer overall...likewise, just because the whole northeast is significantly warmer doesn't mean that we're in a runaway global warming chain reaction that'll turn the earth into another Venus. Its all connected in an enormously complex, hugely massive system.

    Those weather patterns have shifted in a big way for a reason...effects don't just happen without a cause. Could be El Nino, could be the butterfly effect from some kid blowing bubbles in France, sunspots, that 40,000 year cyclic shift in the earth's orbit, the moving magentic north pole, shift in the strength of the magnetic field...maybe several factors combined or none of the above. I don't know, but I think its silly to dismiss global warming out of hand based on specious reasoning rather than hard evidence.
     
  14. Charles

    Charles Moderator Staff Member
    Messages: 256

    I have said before its not like looking out your window and saying its cold there is no global warming or its hot so there is. I think the more scientific approach is to take lots of data nationwide and worldwide and see a pattern from that data. Long term data. We who are not scientist tend to simplify things. Just like a scientist would probably simplify plowing snow if he had to describe it(if he had never done it)
     
  15. RJ lindblom

    RJ lindblom Senior Member
    Messages: 346

    I will agree to a point. Yes the climate is changing. Why is it changing?