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el nino winter 2012-13???

Discussion in 'Weather' started by FISHERBOY, May 6, 2012.

  1. FISHERBOY

    FISHERBOY Senior Member
    Messages: 542

    The la nina we were in for the past 2 season is finally over!!!!!. Currently the el nino is slowly starting to come on, warm waters of south america are present, and should peak around late june or july, to get all those winters we dream aboutpayup the waters need to warm in the central and western pacific, which should happen, key word is should!!!
    STAY TUNED!!!
    Curent analogs are as follows 57-58 77-78 02-03 09-10, what they all in common is the winters before they all had 2 year la nina's!!!:eek:

    Giving you the forcasting links to the past, to predict the present , to forecast the future.
     
  2. Grassman09

    Grassman09 2000 Club Member
    Messages: 2,806

    Ya right.. And thunder only happens when its raining................
     
  3. Premier

    Premier Senior Member
    Messages: 274

    :laughing::laughing::laughing::laughing:


     
  4. grandview

    grandview PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 14,609

    And you can only dance in the dark.
     
  5. fireside

    fireside Senior Member
    Messages: 661

    The other more intesting thing is NAO has been neg for the last 2 months. It has not only been neg but historic lows. All of last winter that never happened other than the october blizzard.
    At this time all i will say is watch closely for mid november with this ongoing weather i'm getting excited for the winter.
     
  6. cet

    cet PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 7,202

    I'm not sure what winters you dream about but for me last winter was perfect. :drinkup:
     
  7. dlcs

    dlcs 2000 Club Member
    Messages: 2,149

    Ok so if its negative, shouldn't we be seeing rain here in the midwest?
     
  8. fireside

    fireside Senior Member
    Messages: 661

    The answer is yes and no. The negative NAO will affect your weather but not as bad as along the eastern seaboard and great lakes. As for your lack of rain thats a much larger posting.
     
  9. peteo1

    peteo1 PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,659

    So you're saying the east coast and great lakes should see decent snow this year? That would be great as I live on the shores of Lake Erie. I can't afford another winter like last year. I think that goes for most of us in this business to be honest.
     
  10. pmorrissette

    pmorrissette Senior Member
    Messages: 175

    I think most of the guys around here were laughing all the way to the bank last year...at least those that do residentials...everybody works off a seasonal contract...paid in 2 or sometime 3 installments...so they had the same revenue as a normal winter, with about half the expenditures.
     
  11. fireside

    fireside Senior Member
    Messages: 661

    I my market most snowplowing is per push. Even some of the larger accounts are per push. That being said there was not much laughing here with the winter we had! Banks needed a crying room instead. The only seasonal i had payed the bills.
     
  12. Charles

    Charles Moderator Staff Member
    Messages: 253

    The NOAA site shows there is a 50% chance of a El Nino winter. Right now ,we are in the Neutral position after a long time of La Nina. There was heavy snow 2 winters ago during the La Nina. But there wasn't much snow as La Nina faded away during last winter. The thing is, there is supposed to be a time delay between changes in the Ocean Temps as to weather patterns. So if the Neutral changes to El Nino then it may be weeks to a month before the weather pattern changes. I have seen a drought set in here pretty quickly after a change over to La Nina but the ocean temps were probably cooling before La Nina was diagnosed. Looks to me like the Upper Midwest is generally milder during a typical El Nino winter. As this site points out, La Nina etc are not the only factors determining what weather we get:

    Here is a typical El Nino winter temp pattern:

    http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/gif/fst-temp-us-big.gif

    How El Nino effects the US.

    http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/impacts.html


    http://www.usatoday.com/weather/res...09-25-el-nino-la-nina-affect-us-weather_N.htm

    "El Niño and La Niña can have noticeable weather impacts in the USA, which vary from season to season. A strong El Niño can result in a stormy winter along the West Coast, a wet winter across the South, and a warmer-than average winter for parts of the North......"
     
  13. FISHERBOY

    FISHERBOY Senior Member
    Messages: 542

    El nino

    With this years el nino it should be central based, or western based, which is being predicted, thats good for the eastern U.S Thumbs Up, if the el nino is eastern based its warmer than normal.