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Early forcasts

Discussion in 'Commercial Snow Removal' started by sno-mover, Aug 1, 2002.

  1. sno-mover

    sno-mover Senior Member
    Messages: 274

    Hey guys, I was wondering if any one has heard any theorys about the 02-03 winter weather season? I heard elnio or how ever you spell it is comming back this year, which leaves us warm and dry.:mad: I thought that was the opposite.:confused:
     
  2. Mick

    Mick PlowSite.com Veteran
    from Maine
    Messages: 5,546

    I understood the opposite - that for this area we'd get more storms than the last couple of years with higher amounts of snowfall. That must be why they call them "weather-guessers".
     
  3. JD PLOWER

    JD PLOWER PlowSite.com Veteran
    Messages: 751

    Mick I have also heard a similar forcast. A weak El nino means more noreasters?
     
  4. Pelican

    Pelican 2000 Club Member
    Messages: 2,075

    One of my accounts is a meteorologist service and I was speaking with one of the partners the other day. He wouldn't commit to the upcoming season but said the extremely wet late spring we had here in the Northeast was expected to have developed in February and March.

    That would have made for a different season!
     
  5. Rob

    Rob PlowSite.com Veteran
    Messages: 306

    Same here,
    I think that El Nino produces stronger, wetter winter storms for the north east.
     
  6. Got Grass?

    Got Grass? Senior Member
    Messages: 641


    I would tell them you will only plow when they predict the storm accuratly.
    :realmad:
     
  7. Pelican

    Pelican 2000 Club Member
    Messages: 2,075

    I did ask him for a little help for us all this season;)
     
  8. digger242j

    digger242j Senior Member
    Messages: 672

    Actually, if you could charge them for what they predict, not for what actually falls, you'd probably come out way ahead.... :)
     
  9. Lawn Lad

    Lawn Lad Senior Member
    Messages: 407

    If you could charge on predictations that would be great....

    "For our viewing area tonight we'll have scattered snow flurries, a possible 1" to 2" of accumulation throughout the nightime and into the morning."

    This means WE DON'T KNOW IF WE'RE GETTING ANY SNOW AND IF WE DO - WE JUST COVERED OUR A@$es!
     
  10. JCurtis

    JCurtis Banned
    Messages: 862

    I like the idea of billing for what the weather guessers predict... even if they are wrong and the snow doesn't arrive....

    After all have you noticed that a lot of doctor's and dentist's charge you for an appointment if you don't show and dont call to cancel!!!!

    They say that its because you not showing up for an appointment without calling to cancel is depriving them of booking that time slot for another patient... thus a loss in revenue.

    Maybe we should start billing our local weather guessers for storms that don't materialize.

    What do ya think?;)
     
  11. Mick

    Mick PlowSite.com Veteran
    from Maine
    Messages: 5,546

    The trouble is that they'd just keep predicting zero accumulation of snow. I'd like to charge one rate if they're right within two inches and then a sliding scale for each inch they're wrong by. And - if they predict no accumalation and you wake up to 12" of wet and heavy; they go with you to plow "scattered flurries".
     
  12. JCurtis

    JCurtis Banned
    Messages: 862

    Now that Idea works for me Mick. but lets take it one step further... they get to do all the grunt work , shoveling etc. while we stay in the nice warm cab.:D
     
  13. digger242j

    digger242j Senior Member
    Messages: 672

    Just to illustrate how much certainty the NWS has about what's going on with the weather, here's what's called the "Forecast Discussion", which is available on their website along with all the other products they provide. I believe it must be a weather forecasting professional's "talking shop" sort of document, usually with *much* more meteorologist jargon than this example. You'll often see reference to several different computer "models" and how much they agree or disagree. I find it useful in that you get an idea of why they've forecast what they have, and even better, where they have doubts about their own accuracy. Here's the latest one:




    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

    334 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2002



    WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA SEEMS TO BE WASHING OUT WITH TIME. MODELS ARE PUSHING DYNAMICS TO THE EAST.



    A FEW STORMS HAVE POPPED UP IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL ENERGY LEFT FROM THE FRONT TO KICK OFF SCATTERED OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.



    BOUNDARY SEEMS TO LAY OUT TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW SO I KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.



    MOS TEMPS LOOK FEASIBLE DURING THIS HOT SPELL.


    As I write this, this one is six hours old. There have been some storms on radar during this time period, but none here. (So, to their credit, the forecast this discusses is pretty close to right.) Note though, the high degree of certainty with which they regard their own painstakingly gathered and digested information--"seems to be", "could be", "seems to", and "looks feasible"....

    Everybody who thinks the NWS has a better idea of what this winter is going to be like than a Ouija Board does, raise your hand.
    :waving:
     
  14. Got Grass?

    Got Grass? Senior Member
    Messages: 641

    Lets start a pole...
    Guess what this winter is going to be like, For our own area, then the rest of ya.

    For WNY I think it will be more mild compared to the last few year.
    I think everyone else will have a good amount...


    :waving:
     
  15. sno-mover

    sno-mover Senior Member
    Messages: 274

    Its got to be a better winter for us than last year with 2 storms totaling 5 1/2":(

    I hope.

    As for you guys in western NY it may be hard to top 7 feet.
     
  16. TurfPlus

    TurfPlus Senior Member
    Messages: 179

  17. John Allin

    John Allin PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,327

    I may be wrong (I often am), but it seems to me that Got Grass's post should have asked for a Poll and not a Pole.....

    Unless, of course, he was talking about what we'd like to deliver to the local Weatherman's anal pore and interior colon cavity given the accuracy of the predictions most of the time.
     
  18. 4 Saisons

    4 Saisons Senior Member
    Messages: 260

    alberta and saskatchewan got snow yesterday, enough to cover the ground in some area.

    how do we call this one, late precipitation from the last season or the first one of 02-03.
     
  19. Mick

    Mick PlowSite.com Veteran
    from Maine
    Messages: 5,546

    Hurry and plow it. Figure out what to call it later :D .
     
  20. Got Grass?

    Got Grass? Senior Member
    Messages: 641

    John, I ment poll but I was thinking something like that.
    If he can still feel it in there, it's cold out. If he cant, it's below freezing & if the pole is white it's snowing. :D

    Almost as bad as one of the local weather guys who uses a feather to figure out what direction the wind is blowing. :rolleyes:

    :eek: 4, I'd call it "off season" & charge the heck outta them. It's past the 1/2 way mark so 02-03.

    Been in the 90's & extremely humid for a while now, I cant wait for the cold white stuff...
    You can always put more clothes on, but you can only take so much off.