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Class action lawsuit NWS forecast New Jersey

Discussion in 'Weather' started by ppandr, Jan 14, 2008.

  1. ppandr

    ppandr Senior Member
    Messages: 619

    How many millions of dollars were wasted yesterday by both private and public operations in prepping for the non snow event. Common sense would have told us that were was not going to be a major event and in fact the forecast discussion leading up to Sunday was totally against warning criteria. So why, 24hrs before the event, when computer models did not agree, did they start uping the warnings. Even if the snow would have fallen the ground temps would have been to warm for it not to melt quickly....

    Show us the data because I'm not believing that this was all hype!!!!! Someone should be held accountable for the millions of wasted dollars.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2008
  2. DirtyJerzey

    DirtyJerzey Senior Member
    Messages: 358

    seriously how could you be putting warnings all over, giving a chance of snow a 100% and then rain rain rain... Im no weather expert but just by looking at the radars it was beyond easy to tell that we were just getting rain and that was it...
     
  3. ppandr

    ppandr Senior Member
    Messages: 619

    The forecast disscusion from NWS Mount Holly, NJ from this morning....

    A POST MORTEM ON THE ENDING PRECIP EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE A
    FEW LOCATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDED ITS FORECAST
    Where the f.... was that???,
    THE MODEL THAT DID THE BEST JOB REGARDING QPF THAT I SAW WAS THE
    13/00Z ECMWF. A COMPROMISE BETWEEN IT AND THE 13/00Z GEM THAT
    LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE BEEN THE WAY TO GO RATHER THAN
    USING THE GEM AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WRF/GFS AND THE ECMWF.
    Why isssue heavy snow warnings when all the models do not agree"
    ALSO, THE PRIMARY LOW THAT HUNG BACK TO OUR NORTHWEST LIKELY HAD
    AT LEAST SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE LACK OF FORECAST COLD AIR
    ADVECTION. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENDED UP 3 OR 4 DEGREES F MILDER
    THAN WE HAD FORECAST,Maybe because it was 70 degrees 2 days ago???
    AND QUITE LIKELY THE COLUMN TEMPERATURES
    WERE MILDER THAN EITHER THE GFS OR THE WRF SOUNDINGS INDICATED.
    THAT MADE A REAL DIFFERENCE IN THE PTYPE. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF
    SNOW THAT HAS BEEN REPORTED TO US AS OF 330 AM WAS A LITTLE OVER 4
    INCHES AT WANTAGE IN SUSSEX COUNTY, NJ. WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF 1
    TO 2 INCHES Which were forecast to be 5-10"..then dropped to 4-7"
    OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BERKS, WARREN AND MORRIS
    COUNTIES AS OF ABOUT 1230 AM. THERE WAS LESS THAN A HALF-INCH AT
    ALLENTOWN AS OF 100 AM. WE DON`T HAVE ANY MORE REPORTS AT THIS
    TIME, BUT WE`LL ISSUE A PNS AND UPDATE IF WE GET ANY MORE REPORTS
    AFTER PEOPLE WAKE UP ASSUMING THE SNOW DOESN`T MELT BY THEN.Or...it didn't really snow, really.

    It is time for the NWS to reexamine there warning criteria and how it is issued. Whether this has to be done by lawsuit or by our elected representatives, this needs to be addressed.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2008
  4. prizeprop

    prizeprop Senior Member
    Messages: 135

    I was thinking the same thing, How many millions if not billions of dollars were waisted because of this forcast.I think they over forcast to increase ratings.
     
  5. scitown

    scitown Senior Member
    Messages: 422

  6. ppandr

    ppandr Senior Member
    Messages: 619

    Great link...posting it here....
    .... why were the forecasts for this storm so bad?? That actually is not a fair question because it really was only in one relatively small area where the forecasts were bad. Unfortunately about 15 million people live in that area which includes eastern Pennsylvania, southeastern New York, southwest Connecticut and northern New Jersey. In most of that area the forecast was for either 1 to 3 or 3 to 6 inches of snow, some forecasts were even for more than 6 inches.
    Most of northern NJ was forecast for 5-10" , and dropped to 4-7" The Heavy Snow warning was cancelled at 2:15am??? Two hours after the precip was moving out of the area, which was 100% rain.
    The result was in most places was virtually nothing. This was a difficult storm to predict for that area from the get-go... and the computer models were just no help at all waffling from one solution to the other and then back again. But I think, admittedly in hind-cast, which as you know is 100 percent accurate, what the forecasts lacked was a little good old-fashioned common sense. The area in question was coming out an unseasonably warm spell of weather. Temperatures last week ran 30 degrees above average and were still 5 to 10 degrees above average over the weekend. Paved surfaces were unusually warm for this time of year, and it was going to take heavy snow to chill them down to the point where snow would stick. And the storm just wasn't very well organized. The surface low pressure system was out over the Atlantic and well removed from the upper-level support over the Great Lakes. Until the two linked up, precipitation was likely to be light and since temperatures in the area in question rose into the low and middle 40s yesterday, that meant at least some of the initial precipitation would be in the form of rain. I think most old time forecasters would have looked at that overall weather pattern and said this just doesn't look like a snowstorm until it gets to New England.

    As it turned out that was exactly what happened... precipitation was light and spotty and in the form of rain initially, and when the system finally started producing strong enough upward motion to generate enough cold air to produce snow, the storm was into New England and for all practical purposes over in eastern Pa, southeastern New York and New Jersey. Parts of upstate New York and southwest Connecticut picked up a couple of inches of snow but the real snow was farther to the northeast. Again... in retrospect.... a little common sense and the kind of good old-fashioned pattern recognition used by good old-fashioned weather forecasters might have led to a better forecast than the ones generated by our new-fangled, but very fallible computer models.
    So why can't we hold the NWS forecasters responsible for making such a bad judgement call that wasted millions of dollars???? This is not a joke, it is not even laughable... At what point did someone decide to not heed the computer models (none agreed) and decide the severity of the forecast. If I don't use common sense on my jobs and make a mistake then I assume the responsibility and bear the cost to remedy. I understand that the weather is a best guess game, but at some point someone is responisible....more to follow.
     
  7. mkwl

    mkwl 2000 Club Member
    Messages: 2,361

    I don't see how they could forecast heavy snow with totals of 6-8", while it is raining outside, then maintain their forecast before changing it at 7AM this morning to a 30% chance of a few snow showers :realmad: How could their forecast be so wrong? I could have pulled a better forecast out of a hat!:realmad:
     
  8. topdj

    topdj Senior Member
    Messages: 396

    its not called forcast its aftercast they do this all the time now, I swear its a bunch of school kids hoping to get the day off.
     
  9. MnDLawn

    MnDLawn Senior Member
    Messages: 213

    On station called for 8-12, I have a wet driveway right now. :realmad: What other person besides a "weatherman" can make the federal, local government and private industry spend millions to billions of dollars in on day for nothing? Liars all liars.
     
  10. dakotasrock

    dakotasrock Senior Member
    from MN
    Messages: 260

    maybe it's just a coincidence, but our forecasts for last thurs and fri were also totally wrong here in MN.
     
  11. makplow

    makplow Senior Member
    Messages: 242

    My heart goes out too all you guys in the Mid Atlantic states. I live in South east Mass. and our forecasts are always wrong for the most part also, but we do manage too sneak in a few inches of snow each year even though it is not what they usually predict.

    I Some times feel they over forecast too have people over prepared then too be under. That way they can't be held liable if storms turn out too be much more severe then if they under state it. Hurricane Katrina is just one example of being under prepared.

    I also side with what everyone is saying and that millions off dollars, plus time and energy are wasted too be over prepared.

    I also feel that it is a ploy too boost the economy by over hyping weather events. It would be nice some day when the weather forecasts can be made with more accuracy.
     
  12. makplow

    makplow Senior Member
    Messages: 242

    PS> On my last post I wanted to give the Mad Man of Weather his Kudos because he loves too hype big storms, because like a lot of us he gets excited, but he also lets you know the truth on what he sees in the models and is sincere. I trust Henry more then any one else and what they have too offer about the weather forecasts.

    Mak.
     
  13. ppandr

    ppandr Senior Member
    Messages: 619

    The forecast can be more accurate and updated much more frequently.

    I'm not trying to bash anyone...just trying to get my point across. The economy is in the shitter and we can not stand on the sidelines and not be proactive. Taxes are not going down, fuel tax/tolls going up here in NJ, customers are holding tight on new projects, and every single business expense is rising....


    One other thing....how come there is not a little yellow smiley guy over here on the right holding an AMERICAN flag????? :mad:
     
  14. makplow

    makplow Senior Member
    Messages: 242

    Very well said but, I think we should still wave the flag, It is a great country! :salute:

    Mak
     
  15. iceyman

    iceyman 2000 Club Member
    Messages: 2,536

    ive been thinking that for months. :gunsfiring: tymusic... im just kiddin i love canadians.:waving:
     
  16. tls22

    tls22 PlowSite Veteran
    Messages: 4,263

    Biggest bust since 2001, very angry at NWS:realmad:! How about the small bussiness owners that held guys overnight, or spend money getting ready!:dizzy: Im done with weather people, i will nowcast from my window!:rolleyes:
     
  17. mkwl

    mkwl 2000 Club Member
    Messages: 2,361

    I was SURE it would snow, I loaded up my truck with ballast, shovels, salt etc, put on the plow- all for NOTHING! I can only imagine how pissed I'd be if I was stuck unloading a fleet of spreaders now and unhooking a fleet of plows :angry:
     
  18. jrush

    jrush Member
    from ct
    Messages: 41

    before the storm it was 8"-14"!!! Sweet!! I even spent $ replacing my battery, staying up all nite watching the weather, online etc... The damn storm dropped about 4"!!!!!!!!!!! I came home, turned on the weather, the storm was over, and the new prediction was 3"-9"!!!!!! Imagine my disapointment!!!!!! By the way what the hell is a 3-9" prediction? I could've done that without doppler.:gunsfiring::gunsfiring::gunsfiring: I hate meteorologists!!! What other job can you be wrong that percentage of the time and still be employed?
     
  19. Burkartsplow

    Burkartsplow PlowSite Veteran
    Messages: 3,245

    My nieces in boston got the day off due to the forecast. tey did not get much of anything yesterday....
     
  20. svelasquez

    svelasquez Member
    Messages: 63

    Can I tell you all about my maiden voyage?...

    Greetings everyone. I feel better now that I've taken my blood pressure medicine, stopped beating the wife and kicking the dog! The NWS must hire the same people to forecast the weather that forecast an Obama 14 pt. win, and the death of Hillary Clinton, in the New Hampshire primaries!

    This is my first season in the business. I've sunk a lot of money into equipment, insurance, modifying my vehicle, advertising etc... The other night promised, or so it seemed, to help me offset some of that investment. I was glued to the Weather Channel, scanned the websites and did a happy dance when they said that North & West Jersey were going to get covered. Now I live in Central Jersey but have my roots up north so I was going to go "home" and do mercenary work.

    I went out in the pouring rain and attached my plow, loaded my snowblower, packed on 400lbs. of ballast, gassed up, packed up my lunch, bottled water and whatever else I needed. I barely slept a wink I was so excited about the prospect of actually doing the work instead of reading about it here and watching all of your videos. My time had come! Or so I thought.

    At 3:30 a.m., I fired up the GMC, performed the final inspection. "Tool box?" "Check" "Phones & laptop?" "Check" "Tow strap, shovels, ice breakers, cameras?" "Check Check Check!"

    I trekked northward in search of the mighty snow flake! I thought to myself "when I cross the Driscoll Bridge, there'll be snow on the other side." There was none. Next I thought "when I get to Union County, there'll be snow there." There was none. "When I get past Rte. 280 in Newark, there will surely be snow there!" You guessed it! "Damn it" I thought, "where is the snow they spoke of?" We were supposed to see 3" to 8" in this area!

    Like a fat kid following a Twinkie, I progressed northward through Union, then Essex, then Bergen County's. To the left and right I peered and scanned "white stuff where are you?" I pressed on because the news was still promoting lots of white stuff. "There will surely be snow in Northern Bergen County (Paramus, Montvale etc...). Nope; more rain. I should have turned around at this point, perhaps sooner, but I still had images in my head of going home with a satchel full of cash and finally, some experience under my belt! I created a mental list of bills that would be paid with my new found fortune.

    North my good man! Press on toward the North! There's $now up there! It felt eerily reminiscent of the gold rush of years past, but with a GPS, a heated stage coach and a killer stereo system!

    As I passed the Parkway toll plaza's, I saw legions of plow trucks (much larger than my own) patiently awaiting the arrival of the white stuff. The rest stops looked like watering holes where these large hydraulic dinosaurs would congregate over a cold tank of diesel.

    I bid farewell to the Parkway and was greeted by the New York Thruway which now promised to escort me to my destiny with the white stuff. I couldn't control myself!

    Suddenly, the radio stations changed their tune and gave this storm a new name; "It was the Storm That Never Was" they proclaimed! "NO NO NO, don't you dare romanticize this you bastards! What about the 3", 8", 12" you promised? Where did all that go?." They now claimed that this storm "just vanished" and "moved out to the North and East."

    Fit to be tied I was! I was rapidly approaching the Tappanzee Bridge and my fire began to finally dwindle. I actually considered going further still for they said Hartford Ct. would get 12"! Nahh. I cut my losses, pulled into a McDonalds that had about 1" on the grass and some unplowed slush in the driveway. Like a little boy playing in the dirt, I lowered my plow just to see it push something. I carved out a little nest of slush & sleet, parked my GMC and ate my breakfast.

    And that, my friends, was the story of my maiden voyage.

    Now do you see why I take blood pressure meds? :angry:

    Take care,