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Can't believe it isn't posted on here yet...

Discussion in 'Weather' started by m_falafel, Sep 19, 2011.

  1. m_falafel

    m_falafel Member
    Messages: 77

  2. cubicinches

    cubicinches PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,412

    I pay zero attention to long term forecasts anymore... Nothing but guesswork. Do they guess close from time to time? Sure they do... Then again, even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in awhile.
  3. Longae29

    Longae29 PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,954

    Nothing but guesswork? That's crazy. Did you read it all?
  4. cubicinches

    cubicinches PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,412

    Actually, I didn't read much of it. Why? Did you see something really difinitive in there?
  5. grandview

    grandview PlowSite Fanatic
    Messages: 14,609

    It was but it was deleted.
  6. Longae29

    Longae29 PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,954

    Nothing definitive, but is there anything that is in this business? To me there's a lot that relies on past data applied to what's currently going on. To say its nothing but guessing just isn't true.
  7. m_falafel

    m_falafel Member
    Messages: 77

    Meh, in my opinion these kind of forecasts are far more useful than the day to day weather predictions we have in my area.

    Plus, being able to compare this year's situation with some other winter we had in the past is interesting. It often shuts the mouth of all those old people who can't help but complain how nowadays, winters aren't what they used to be, "back in the days" lol.
  8. cubicinches

    cubicinches PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,412

    There may, or may not, be alot that relies on past data...long range forecasters seem to rely on that theory, but I've not seen them be correct in their forecasting any more often than I've seen them be incorrect. So, that's open to interpretation. That being said, I'd say there's as much, or more, that doesn't rely on it. It certainly cuts both ways. Depending on your interpretation, I suppose it could be called "educated guesswork"... nonetheless, it's still guesswork in my book.

    It's my opinion that they have enough trouble forecasting weather two or three days out... much less months ahead. In saying that, I'm not a weatherman basher... I'm in an area very prone to some wicked lake effect snow. Everyone knows that lake effect is very tricky to predict. I will say that the guys in our area do a pretty decent job forecasting... but only day to day, and hour to hour... as they are able to view more current conditions (guesswork out of the equation).

    All of the local guys did a long range forecast for our area prior to last winter. Using all of that same past data, along with ocean temps, nearby lake temps, summer temps, hurricane activity, la nina, el nino, on and on. They were all pretty consistent: not alot of huge storms, slightly less than our average snowfall of 112" or 114" (whatever it is). The outcome last winter? Fourth snowiest on record... 179"... I rest my case. I realize they're probably interesting to read... But, for myself, I don't have enough faith in long range forecasts to get too excited one way or another about them. Just my opinion. :)
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2011
  9. PlowMan03

    PlowMan03 Senior Member
    from Maine
    Messages: 471

    I'm liking the looks of the 2nd edition of the winter outlook
  10. Brian Young

    Brian Young PlowSite Veteran
    Messages: 3,382

    Basher put something one here last week that said basically the same thing. I don't really rely on these things but I will admit the Farmer's Almanac has been really close the past few years. One thing I've noticed since about September is they are all saying the same thing. Great, there goes my seasonal's!
  11. m_falafel

    m_falafel Member
    Messages: 77

    Over here, everything is seasonal... Crap. Last year, winter ended with a 36 inch storm!!!
  12. Landcare - Mont

    Landcare - Mont Senior Member
    Messages: 351

    Yeah, that one was just for you guys in the Townships - missed us!
  13. dfd9

    dfd9 PlowSite.com Addict
    Messages: 1,475

    Does this mean it's going to snow and be cold this winter?

    Like last winter?

    And the one before that?

    And on and on and on and on and on..........................
  14. Brian Young

    Brian Young PlowSite Veteran
    Messages: 3,382

    LOL right! No I think this year we will have snow that melts on its own!