The la nina we were in for the past 2 season is finally over!!!!!. Currently the el nino is slowly starting to come on, warm waters of south america are present, and should peak around late june or july, to get all those winters we dream about the waters need to warm in the central and western pacific, which should happen, key word is should!!!
Curent analogs are as follows 57-58 77-78 02-03 09-10, what they all in common is the winters before they all had 2 year la nina's!!!
Giving you the forcasting links to the past, to predict the present , to forecast the future.
01 F-350 dump 4x4 444 c.i. powerstroke diesel 9ft fisher HD series central hydrualics, Henderson SS tailgate spreader
99 F-250 pickup 4x4 444 c.i powerstroke diesel. 8ft fisher HD series plow, 8' Fisher Pro Caster SS V-box
The other more intesting thing is NAO has been neg for the last 2 months. It has not only been neg but historic lows. All of last winter that never happened other than the october blizzard.
At this time all i will say is watch closely for mid november with this ongoing weather i'm getting excited for the winter.
So you're saying the east coast and great lakes should see decent snow this year? That would be great as I live on the shores of Lake Erie. I can't afford another winter like last year. I think that goes for most of us in this business to be honest.
I think most of the guys around here were laughing all the way to the bank last year...at least those that do residentials...everybody works off a seasonal contract...paid in 2 or sometime 3 installments...so they had the same revenue as a normal winter, with about half the expenditures.
I my market most snowplowing is per push. Even some of the larger accounts are per push. That being said there was not much laughing here with the winter we had! Banks needed a crying room instead. The only seasonal i had payed the bills.
The NOAA site shows there is a 50% chance of a El Nino winter. Right now ,we are in the Neutral position after a long time of La Nina. There was heavy snow 2 winters ago during the La Nina. But there wasn't much snow as La Nina faded away during last winter. The thing is, there is supposed to be a time delay between changes in the Ocean Temps as to weather patterns. So if the Neutral changes to El Nino then it may be weeks to a month before the weather pattern changes. I have seen a drought set in here pretty quickly after a change over to La Nina but the ocean temps were probably cooling before La Nina was diagnosed. Looks to me like the Upper Midwest is generally milder during a typical El Nino winter. As this site points out, La Nina etc are not the only factors determining what weather we get:
"El Niño and La Niña can have noticeable weather impacts in the USA, which vary from season to season. A strong El Niño can result in a stormy winter along the West Coast, a wet winter across the South, and a warmer-than average winter for parts of the North......"